NYT reports on Education Secretary Margaret Spellings's quest to have NCLB enshrined as Bush's education legacy.
At a school she visited, "Doug Alpiger, the Fourth Street principal, said tests beget more tests, because school districts want proof their students are on track."
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Sound Transit's new future plan is up
Proposition 1, rejected last fall by Puget Sound voters, would have approved a large package of mass-transit improvements as well as highway improvements. Interestingly, after its failure at the polls, surveys indicated that a large bloc of voters (environmentalists who did not vote for passage) would have been swayed towards the proposal had it had less highways, not more.
A survey conducted by Sound Transit (PDF) seems to bear that out. According to Sound Transit's telephone survey, there is good news--voters think that expanding mass transit is very important. ST didn't explicitly ask voters to prioritize funding for mass transit over other areas, but since mass transit will have its own referendum, that's not as much of an issues. Furthermore, 52 percent of respondents to an open question identified "transportation" or "congestion" as the most important problem facing the PS region. Voters had very favorable opinions of Sound Transit and King County Metro. In general, voters approved of almost every option put on the table, and seemed to give greater favor to options which were completed more quickly and were more extensive in scope.
Out of the individual projects, those that found the most favor were increasing Tacoma-Seattle commuter rail, using the Eastside freight rail tracks for commuter rail, and extending the light rail across I-90 to Bellevue.
My principal concern about the survey is that it seems to have grossly underweighted younger voters. Only 20 percent of survey respondents were 39 or younger. I am curious if this was deliberate, to represent the distribution of voters, or whether it was a result of polling methods (younger people being more mobile, younger people not having land phones, etc.) I have no idea if it would make a difference in the results.
So, then, what is the proposal? ST comes out with two--the "0.4" and the "0.5" proposals--based on the sales tax hike that each one would require. Essentially, 0.5 is 0.4, plus more stuff. Key points:
A survey conducted by Sound Transit (PDF) seems to bear that out. According to Sound Transit's telephone survey, there is good news--voters think that expanding mass transit is very important. ST didn't explicitly ask voters to prioritize funding for mass transit over other areas, but since mass transit will have its own referendum, that's not as much of an issues. Furthermore, 52 percent of respondents to an open question identified "transportation" or "congestion" as the most important problem facing the PS region. Voters had very favorable opinions of Sound Transit and King County Metro. In general, voters approved of almost every option put on the table, and seemed to give greater favor to options which were completed more quickly and were more extensive in scope.
Out of the individual projects, those that found the most favor were increasing Tacoma-Seattle commuter rail, using the Eastside freight rail tracks for commuter rail, and extending the light rail across I-90 to Bellevue.
My principal concern about the survey is that it seems to have grossly underweighted younger voters. Only 20 percent of survey respondents were 39 or younger. I am curious if this was deliberate, to represent the distribution of voters, or whether it was a result of polling methods (younger people being more mobile, younger people not having land phones, etc.) I have no idea if it would make a difference in the results.
So, then, what is the proposal? ST comes out with two--the "0.4" and the "0.5" proposals--based on the sales tax hike that each one would require. Essentially, 0.5 is 0.4, plus more stuff. Key points:
- Expansion of light rail to Northgate, to Overlake Hospital in Bellevue, and to south 200th in Burien. The 0.5 plan extends it further, to Overlake TC in Redmond, and to Highline CC in Des Moines. Additionally, there would be studies done (and in some cases ROW purchased) for the eventual extension of the light rail to Everett, Tacoma and Redmond Town Center.
- BRT on the new 520 bridge (not sure what, exactly, this BRT will look like, or how it would be different from current ST regional service. Guess it depends on the bridge outcome).
- Improved Sounder on the southern end (through Kent and Auburn to Tacoma)--more service, station improvements, etc.
- Construction of the First Hill connector that will link that area with light rail (how much gets done depends on which plan).
- Study of transit possibilities on the freight line from Woodinville to Renton.
- Of course, there are lots of little improvements all around.
Charter schools
Matthew Yglesias has a post up about Excel Academy in Boston, a charter school which--like KIPP--takes the brightest students from inner-city schools and requires family commitment contracts. Not surprisingly, it gets good results. Yglesias concludes that poor kids need more and better instruction without confronting the fact that the schools "cherry-pick" students.
He's right--more and better instruction is important. Yglesias's commenters point out that the problem isn't as much with academically capable kids from the inner city, but with those with families that don't know or don't care about a good education. Also true. (Note Finland's secrets to success).
Where I taught elementary, one of my colleagues who taught Vanguard (the gifted-talented kids) was perpetually frustrated by KIPP, which tried to recruit her brightest kids. Her feeling was that she'd rather have the kids in public magnet schools than KIPP, which she thought was needed for the kids who might not have been as naturally bright, but were still academically oriented. I tend to agree. Meanwhile, there's still the issue of behavior problems disrupting everyone left behind.
He's right--more and better instruction is important. Yglesias's commenters point out that the problem isn't as much with academically capable kids from the inner city, but with those with families that don't know or don't care about a good education. Also true. (Note Finland's secrets to success).
Where I taught elementary, one of my colleagues who taught Vanguard (the gifted-talented kids) was perpetually frustrated by KIPP, which tried to recruit her brightest kids. Her feeling was that she'd rather have the kids in public magnet schools than KIPP, which she thought was needed for the kids who might not have been as naturally bright, but were still academically oriented. I tend to agree. Meanwhile, there's still the issue of behavior problems disrupting everyone left behind.
Monday, June 09, 2008
Griffey hits 600
Ken Griffey Jr. has made it to 600. At ESPN, Tim Kurkjian reflects on Griffey in his prime--a prime that we in Seattle had the privilege of watching. Seeing an ESPN clip of Griffey ("the Kid") homering in the Kingdome brought me back to my baseball childhood. I thought I was 13 again! (If you don't feel it, you need to look at this).
It's sad to reflect that Griffey, out of the Mariners' great three (he along with Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez), was the only one to really be honest about his intentions--he signed with the Reds, his hometown team, for below market value--and he's been the one to be the most screwed by the situation. While A-Rod got $250m and eventually made his way to New York, and Randy got his rings too (and some Cy Youngs), Griffey just ran into injury and disappointment. He was 30 his first season in Cincinnati (2000) and the best part of his career was over.
The Reds have just one winning season during his time--that first season, 2000--and no playoff appearances. That's certainly partially due to Griffey's injuries. He's reached 500 at-bats only twice in eight full seasons so far. Strangely, he was never seriously injured in Seattle, bar his freak wrist injury on his center-field catch in 1995. Meanwhile, Griffey's seven best seasons in park-adjusted OPS all occurred in Seattle. His best season in Cincinnati (by OPS+ standards), and the eighth-best in his career, was 2003, when he had only 166 at-bats; his best "full" season was 2005, as he managed 491 at-bats, hitting .301/.369/.576 for a 144 OPS+.
That's all there is to this reflection... congratulations to Junior, and may there be many more left.
It's sad to reflect that Griffey, out of the Mariners' great three (he along with Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez), was the only one to really be honest about his intentions--he signed with the Reds, his hometown team, for below market value--and he's been the one to be the most screwed by the situation. While A-Rod got $250m and eventually made his way to New York, and Randy got his rings too (and some Cy Youngs), Griffey just ran into injury and disappointment. He was 30 his first season in Cincinnati (2000) and the best part of his career was over.
The Reds have just one winning season during his time--that first season, 2000--and no playoff appearances. That's certainly partially due to Griffey's injuries. He's reached 500 at-bats only twice in eight full seasons so far. Strangely, he was never seriously injured in Seattle, bar his freak wrist injury on his center-field catch in 1995. Meanwhile, Griffey's seven best seasons in park-adjusted OPS all occurred in Seattle. His best season in Cincinnati (by OPS+ standards), and the eighth-best in his career, was 2003, when he had only 166 at-bats; his best "full" season was 2005, as he managed 491 at-bats, hitting .301/.369/.576 for a 144 OPS+.
That's all there is to this reflection... congratulations to Junior, and may there be many more left.
My favorite quote... on YouTube
I found one of my favorite quotes on YouTube, though the audio quality is pretty bad. The President of the Spanish Republic, Manuel Azaña, as the Republic was clearly losing the war, gave a speech at Barcelona's Ayuntamiento (City Hall) in July 1938 and said the following (personally, I am surprised at the tone of voice that he used to deliver it, as I always considered it a more emotional and quiet quotation):
"Es obligación moral, sobre todo de los que padecen la guerra, cuando se acabe como nosotros queremos que se acabe, sacar de la lección y de la musa del escarmiento el mayor bien posible, y cuando la antorcha pase a otras manos, a otros hombres, a otras generaciones, que se acordaran, si alguna vez sienten que les hierve la sangre iracunda y otra vez el genio español vuelva a enfurecerse con la intolerancia y con el odio y con el apetito de destrucción, que piensen en los muertos y que escuchen su lección: la de esos hombres, que han caído embravecidos en la batalla luchando magnánimamente por un ideal grandioso y que ahora, abrigados en la tierra maternal, ya no tienen odio, ya no tienen rancor, y nos envían, con los destellos de su luz, tranquila y remota como la de una estrella, el mensaje de la patria eternal que dice a todos sus hijos: Paz, Piedad y Perdón."
The translation is as follows (mostly from Hugh Thomas, The Spanish Civil War, but I did the first couple clauses):
"It is a moral obligation, above all of those who suffer war, when it ends as we wish it to end, to take from the lesson and the muse of the punishment the greatest good possible, and when the torch passes to other hands, to other men, to other generations, let them remember, if they ever feel their blood boil and the Spanish temper is once more infuriated with intolerance, hatred, and destruction, let them think of the dead, and listen to their lesson: the lesson of those who have bravely fallen in battle, generously fighting for a great ideal, and who now, protected by their maternal soil, feel no hate or rancor, and who send us, with the sparkling of their light, tranquil and remote as that of a star, the message of the eternal fatherland which says to all its sons: Peace, Pity, and Pardon."
"Es obligación moral, sobre todo de los que padecen la guerra, cuando se acabe como nosotros queremos que se acabe, sacar de la lección y de la musa del escarmiento el mayor bien posible, y cuando la antorcha pase a otras manos, a otros hombres, a otras generaciones, que se acordaran, si alguna vez sienten que les hierve la sangre iracunda y otra vez el genio español vuelva a enfurecerse con la intolerancia y con el odio y con el apetito de destrucción, que piensen en los muertos y que escuchen su lección: la de esos hombres, que han caído embravecidos en la batalla luchando magnánimamente por un ideal grandioso y que ahora, abrigados en la tierra maternal, ya no tienen odio, ya no tienen rancor, y nos envían, con los destellos de su luz, tranquila y remota como la de una estrella, el mensaje de la patria eternal que dice a todos sus hijos: Paz, Piedad y Perdón."
The translation is as follows (mostly from Hugh Thomas, The Spanish Civil War, but I did the first couple clauses):
"It is a moral obligation, above all of those who suffer war, when it ends as we wish it to end, to take from the lesson and the muse of the punishment the greatest good possible, and when the torch passes to other hands, to other men, to other generations, let them remember, if they ever feel their blood boil and the Spanish temper is once more infuriated with intolerance, hatred, and destruction, let them think of the dead, and listen to their lesson: the lesson of those who have bravely fallen in battle, generously fighting for a great ideal, and who now, protected by their maternal soil, feel no hate or rancor, and who send us, with the sparkling of their light, tranquil and remote as that of a star, the message of the eternal fatherland which says to all its sons: Peace, Pity, and Pardon."
Education in Finland
The Economist's correspondent took a trip to Sweden and Finland to look at their education systems--the latter country's education system is the world's highest-ranked. The correspondent leaves, noting that he approves more, in principle, of Sweden's system--which gives parents more rights vis-a-vis the state, and has competition between different schools and methods (despite not allowing grades)--yet it's Finland's system that gets the best results.
And why does Finland's system get such great outcomes? According to him, it's these three things:
The correspondent notes that lots of Finnish students are in "special education", especially for behavioral factors. I think my class last year would have achieved 25% more without one or two particular students who, in turn, merited more specialized attention to get on track as well.
On a favorite Republican talking point, it's hard to get rid of bad teachers in Finland: "In Kulosaari, the head teacher, Anneli Rautiainen, said alcoholic teachers in Finland are moved between classes and sometimes even between schools, so that they don't do too much damage to any one child's education." Perhaps firing flexibility isn't the #1 factor. After all, you can get rid of bad teachers, but you've gotta have someone to replace them...
And why does Finland's system get such great outcomes? According to him, it's these three things:
- Teaching is a highly respected profession. Only 10% of those who want to be teachers are accepted.
- Teacher training lasts five years and ongoing teacher training is considerable.
- Students respect the teachers, pay attention and work hard. ("When I asked Finns whether there were some families who despised education and resented schools, they seemed puzzled by the question.")
The correspondent notes that lots of Finnish students are in "special education", especially for behavioral factors. I think my class last year would have achieved 25% more without one or two particular students who, in turn, merited more specialized attention to get on track as well.
On a favorite Republican talking point, it's hard to get rid of bad teachers in Finland: "In Kulosaari, the head teacher, Anneli Rautiainen, said alcoholic teachers in Finland are moved between classes and sometimes even between schools, so that they don't do too much damage to any one child's education." Perhaps firing flexibility isn't the #1 factor. After all, you can get rid of bad teachers, but you've gotta have someone to replace them...
Graduating (or not) from college
You can write me down as oblivious if you want, I suppose, but in working on a new project of mine I am looking at undergraduate dropout rates in public universities--I had no idea they were so high! Perhaps that is because I went to the University of Washington-Seattle, where the six-year completion rate for a bachelor's degree (for first-time, full-time students) is 75 percent--as opposed to 56 percent at Arizona State, or 42 percent at Sac State, or 12 percent at Texas Southern University.
Now TSU, for one, has been in the headlines in Houston recently for scandals involving the administration--but also because they may finally adopt admission standards. All that's been needed to get into TSU is a high school diploma. Now, it must be said that TSU's mission has been to educate the African-American community, and not to leave people behind--and there's obviously value to that mission, but if students are to succeed, it means the institution spends lots of money just getting them ready to be freshmen.
I'm not picking on TSU--they're just needing to find a better way to fulfill their valuable mission. Not surprisingly, there seems to be a very clear correlation between standardized test scores of entering freshmen and graduation rate. So...
Now TSU, for one, has been in the headlines in Houston recently for scandals involving the administration--but also because they may finally adopt admission standards. All that's been needed to get into TSU is a high school diploma. Now, it must be said that TSU's mission has been to educate the African-American community, and not to leave people behind--and there's obviously value to that mission, but if students are to succeed, it means the institution spends lots of money just getting them ready to be freshmen.
I'm not picking on TSU--they're just needing to find a better way to fulfill their valuable mission. Not surprisingly, there seems to be a very clear correlation between standardized test scores of entering freshmen and graduation rate. So...
- are entering freshmen just not prepared because of subpar schools and/or home resources etc., or
- are lower SAT/ACT scores not the important variable, but rather correlated to lower SES, which then creates financial difficulties in continuing with college, or
- are lots of people who never wanted to be in college in the first place just leaving, and it's not mainly a preparation issue, or ...
Rice Owls head to the College World Series!
As a serious baseball fanatic, living in Houston has been fortunate in one way: I've gotten to follow the Rice Owls, one of the best teams in college ball. I started going to games midway through last season and this season I bought season tickets. Now, you have to understand, in junior high/high school I was one of the youngest active members of SABR (the "saber" in "sabermetrics"), and my old bedroom is still full of my baseball library (probably to my father's chagrin. But where else can I put it?).
This 2008 season has featured a slow start, but the end has definitely made up for it. Last weekend saw Rice go 3-0 in the regional, beating Texas 7-4 on Sunday night in a game that featured a rare ejection (after some truly bad calls by the umpire against Rice).
The super regional this weekend against Texas A&M was two compelling games, in front of excited sellout crowds (about 60 percent of the crowd was probably for A&M). On Saturday night, A&M grabbed an early lead, but Rice came back, with #9 hitter Jordan Dodson--who hit .167 during the regular season, had no at bats in the regional, and went undrafted as a senior--going a stunning 3-for-3 with 4 RBI (this led to "Jordan Dodson" chants all night long on Sunday). Closer Cole St. Clair entered in the fifth, and took Rice the rest of the way, 4 1/3 innings, giving up only two hits and one run, as Rice won 9-6.
On Sunday I managed to bring a camera, so I will throw in some pictures.
The starting lineups posted on the wall at Reckling Park.
The lineups are introduced.
Aggie fans start to pack the left-field hill; they would fill it by the 2nd inning.
A&M again took an early lead in the bottom of the third, scoring two runs off Mike Ojala. (Ojala's most notable moment was probably sticking up his glove in the 3rd inning to catch a quick throw from catcher Adam Zornes... which was actually supposed to go to second base. Ojala knocked the ball off line and the runner was safe.)
In the top of the fourth, the Owls took advantage of a fielding error; freshman shortstop Rick Hague then hit a two-run double and tied up the game. (This would be a good time to mention that this win was thanks to Hague and the relief pitchers, Bryan Price and Bobby Bell; Hague was 3-for-4 with 4 RBI and shone in the field, and the two pitchers went 4 1/3 innings, giving up one hit and no runs).
This led to a near-disastrous bottom of the 4th. Ojala retired only one batter (and that on a sacrifice bunt), leaving with runners on first and third, and a run already in, to make the game 3-2 for A&M. Usual starter Matt Langwell entered, giving up a walk and a double before striking out a hitter, and then giving way to lefty Matt Evers. Evers then walked A&M's cleanup hitter, Luke Anders. This put the bases loaded, with two outs, and three runs already home. Then, a strange call... Kyle Colligan tried to steal home from third base. Catcher Adam Zornes simply tagged him out (see the Chronicle for a picture). A&M did not score after running out of the 4th.
Rice remained down, 5-2, until scoring two in the top of the 6th (again taking advantage of an A&M fielding miscue). With the A&M lead now only one run, the bottom of the 6th was not Diego Seastrunk's finest hour. The Rice 3B was unable to stop a sharp grounder into left for a leadoff single; the next hit bounced off his glove, and while he got it to second for one out, could have been a double play. Rick Hague made a nice play for the inning's second out, but the next batter hit another grounder to Seastrunk, whose throw was offline (for his only official error) and put runners on first and third. Luckily, Hague made another nice play to end the inning and the game remained 5-4.
The top of the 8th was the next big event. Aaron Luna led off with a walk, then was thrown out by a laughable margin trying to steal second. Rick Hague's weak chopper to the left side went for an infield single, but Chad Mozingo flied out, and suddenly there were two outs with a runner on first. Up came catcher Adam Zornes--while he remains the team's home-run leader, his slump had been ongoing since the second part of the regular season. This time, though, Zornes hit a line drive to left field that cleared the fence and gave Rice a 6-5 lead. The Owls would take this lead home, as Price and Bell didn't let A&M threaten.
Rice players mob Adam Zornes at the plate after his home run put the Owls ahead, 6-5.
The final scoreboard.
Rice players celebrate after the Comerota-Hague-Padron double play ends the game.
Sophomore 2B Jimmy Comerota ("Jimmy Baseball") at the screen after the game.
One of the game's stars, freshman SS Rick Hague, after the game.
Coach Wayne Graham (#37) and C Adam Zornes (below him) after the game.
It will be sad to say goodbye to the Rice Owls, so instead I will wish them good luck in Omaha, and I hope I will be back in Houston someday to see them play again!
This 2008 season has featured a slow start, but the end has definitely made up for it. Last weekend saw Rice go 3-0 in the regional, beating Texas 7-4 on Sunday night in a game that featured a rare ejection (after some truly bad calls by the umpire against Rice).
The super regional this weekend against Texas A&M was two compelling games, in front of excited sellout crowds (about 60 percent of the crowd was probably for A&M). On Saturday night, A&M grabbed an early lead, but Rice came back, with #9 hitter Jordan Dodson--who hit .167 during the regular season, had no at bats in the regional, and went undrafted as a senior--going a stunning 3-for-3 with 4 RBI (this led to "Jordan Dodson" chants all night long on Sunday). Closer Cole St. Clair entered in the fifth, and took Rice the rest of the way, 4 1/3 innings, giving up only two hits and one run, as Rice won 9-6.
On Sunday I managed to bring a camera, so I will throw in some pictures.
The starting lineups posted on the wall at Reckling Park.
The lineups are introduced.
Aggie fans start to pack the left-field hill; they would fill it by the 2nd inning.A&M again took an early lead in the bottom of the third, scoring two runs off Mike Ojala. (Ojala's most notable moment was probably sticking up his glove in the 3rd inning to catch a quick throw from catcher Adam Zornes... which was actually supposed to go to second base. Ojala knocked the ball off line and the runner was safe.)
In the top of the fourth, the Owls took advantage of a fielding error; freshman shortstop Rick Hague then hit a two-run double and tied up the game. (This would be a good time to mention that this win was thanks to Hague and the relief pitchers, Bryan Price and Bobby Bell; Hague was 3-for-4 with 4 RBI and shone in the field, and the two pitchers went 4 1/3 innings, giving up one hit and no runs).
This led to a near-disastrous bottom of the 4th. Ojala retired only one batter (and that on a sacrifice bunt), leaving with runners on first and third, and a run already in, to make the game 3-2 for A&M. Usual starter Matt Langwell entered, giving up a walk and a double before striking out a hitter, and then giving way to lefty Matt Evers. Evers then walked A&M's cleanup hitter, Luke Anders. This put the bases loaded, with two outs, and three runs already home. Then, a strange call... Kyle Colligan tried to steal home from third base. Catcher Adam Zornes simply tagged him out (see the Chronicle for a picture). A&M did not score after running out of the 4th.
Rice remained down, 5-2, until scoring two in the top of the 6th (again taking advantage of an A&M fielding miscue). With the A&M lead now only one run, the bottom of the 6th was not Diego Seastrunk's finest hour. The Rice 3B was unable to stop a sharp grounder into left for a leadoff single; the next hit bounced off his glove, and while he got it to second for one out, could have been a double play. Rick Hague made a nice play for the inning's second out, but the next batter hit another grounder to Seastrunk, whose throw was offline (for his only official error) and put runners on first and third. Luckily, Hague made another nice play to end the inning and the game remained 5-4.
The top of the 8th was the next big event. Aaron Luna led off with a walk, then was thrown out by a laughable margin trying to steal second. Rick Hague's weak chopper to the left side went for an infield single, but Chad Mozingo flied out, and suddenly there were two outs with a runner on first. Up came catcher Adam Zornes--while he remains the team's home-run leader, his slump had been ongoing since the second part of the regular season. This time, though, Zornes hit a line drive to left field that cleared the fence and gave Rice a 6-5 lead. The Owls would take this lead home, as Price and Bell didn't let A&M threaten.
Rice players mob Adam Zornes at the plate after his home run put the Owls ahead, 6-5.
The final scoreboard.
Rice players celebrate after the Comerota-Hague-Padron double play ends the game.
Sophomore 2B Jimmy Comerota ("Jimmy Baseball") at the screen after the game.
One of the game's stars, freshman SS Rick Hague, after the game.
Coach Wayne Graham (#37) and C Adam Zornes (below him) after the game.It will be sad to say goodbye to the Rice Owls, so instead I will wish them good luck in Omaha, and I hope I will be back in Houston someday to see them play again!
Monday, April 07, 2008
On the Tigers' goose egg
Okay, so the Detroit Tigers are off to an 0-6 start. We've gotten the mandatory barrage of "only two teams have recovered from an 0-6 start to make the postseason." I feel compelled to chime in with my elementary knowledge of statistics...
These first six games are 3.7 percent of the schedule. If the Tigers can go, say, 92-64 the rest of the way, we'll probably see them in the postseason. So, then, why the poor performance by teams that open 0-6? Without any actual numbers, as I'm not the person who will have time to run them, I'd assert that, over the long term, teams have an equal probability of having a losing streak at any point in the season. From that assertion, it follows that teams which are worse have a higher probability of beginning the season with a losing streak, just as they have a higher probability of having a losing streak in any single stretch during the season. If you break it down, I'm "guessing" (or declaring) you'd find that teams with six-game losing streaks to begin the season also have a higher overall rate of losing streaks during the season (which, after all, makes sense, since only two of them have made the playoffs).
ESPN's Jayson Stark points out: "Of the last seven teams that won the World Series, five of them had losing streaks of six games or more at some point that season -- several of them had multiple losing streaks of six games or more." Right, but they probably had fewer losing streaks than everyone else, right?
So, is the Tigers' fate sealed? Clearly not, but they'll have to be a statistical outlier--a good team that just happened to begin the season 0-6.
These first six games are 3.7 percent of the schedule. If the Tigers can go, say, 92-64 the rest of the way, we'll probably see them in the postseason. So, then, why the poor performance by teams that open 0-6? Without any actual numbers, as I'm not the person who will have time to run them, I'd assert that, over the long term, teams have an equal probability of having a losing streak at any point in the season. From that assertion, it follows that teams which are worse have a higher probability of beginning the season with a losing streak, just as they have a higher probability of having a losing streak in any single stretch during the season. If you break it down, I'm "guessing" (or declaring) you'd find that teams with six-game losing streaks to begin the season also have a higher overall rate of losing streaks during the season (which, after all, makes sense, since only two of them have made the playoffs).
ESPN's Jayson Stark points out: "Of the last seven teams that won the World Series, five of them had losing streaks of six games or more at some point that season -- several of them had multiple losing streaks of six games or more." Right, but they probably had fewer losing streaks than everyone else, right?
So, is the Tigers' fate sealed? Clearly not, but they'll have to be a statistical outlier--a good team that just happened to begin the season 0-6.
Montenegro: President Vujanovic wins reelection
From early returns in Montenegro, it appears that President Filip Vujanović has handily won reelection, taking a majority of votes cast (around 52%). Vujanović is a part of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists, the party of PM Milo Đukanović (the Milosević ally-turned-enemy also known for allegedly smuggling into Italy and backing NATO during the Kosovo crisis for, perhaps, his own opportunistic ends; Đukanović quit in 2006, then decided he couldn't stay just in private business and returned to office in February).
At any rate, this is a pretty resounding mandate for the ruling coalition, which has been in control since the early '90s. A quickly growing economy--especially since leaving the union with Serbia--may have much to do with that. The pro-Serb opposition candidate appears to have received just over 20 percent, and a liberal candidate around 17 percent. The president is a typical European ceremonial president, so the significance of this is essentially as a voter endorsement for Đukanović's resumption of power and the ruling DPS (whose continued stranglehold over Montenegrin government is, however, a little worrying).
One interesting/misleading quote from the AP article is:
See also election article at Wikipedia.
At any rate, this is a pretty resounding mandate for the ruling coalition, which has been in control since the early '90s. A quickly growing economy--especially since leaving the union with Serbia--may have much to do with that. The pro-Serb opposition candidate appears to have received just over 20 percent, and a liberal candidate around 17 percent. The president is a typical European ceremonial president, so the significance of this is essentially as a voter endorsement for Đukanović's resumption of power and the ruling DPS (whose continued stranglehold over Montenegrin government is, however, a little worrying).
One interesting/misleading quote from the AP article is:
"Ethnic Serbs, who make up about 30 percent of the population, opposed the split."Note that the difference between "ethnic Serbs" and "ethnic Montenegrins" is political; they speak the same language (be it "Serbian" or "Montenegrin") and are the same in everything except for their ethnic self-definition. Compare to the "Moldovan" and "Romanian" languages, or perhaps "Valencian" and "Catalan." Therefore, the definition is somewhat tautological; "ethnic Serbs" by definition consider Montenegro and Serbia one country.
See also election article at Wikipedia.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Zim vote "count" proceeds slowly
"Count" of course in quotes, since the counting's been done, but the electoral commission (ZEC) isn't releasing results. No presidential results out, and only 66 parliamentary seats (Zanu-PF 31, MDC-Tsvangirai 30, other MDC faction 5). Some are taking the relatively even distribution of the parliamentary seats as a sign of foul play. Obviously there's the specter of rigging, but (not knowing how the released official results correlate with the MDC's count) I would speculate, alternatively, that the ZEC may be playing it safe and selectively releasing constituencies at a slow pace, making sure they're about tied, until the ruling elite around Mugabe has figured out what the hell they're going to do about the situation. As for the presidential vote, well, who knows... I'm sure they're keeping some usually pro-Mugabe constituencies in their back pocket so they can release presidential and parliamentary figures together showing big Mugabe and Zanu-PF wins, if need be.
Speaking of that ruling elite, reports suggest they're all trying to pass the back as to who tells Bob that it's over. I have to run and can't find the source, but I think BBC was reporting that...
Speaking of that ruling elite, reports suggest they're all trying to pass the back as to who tells Bob that it's over. I have to run and can't find the source, but I think BBC was reporting that...
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Is the fix in?
On Saturday, voters in Zimbabwe went to the polls to elect a new president, parliament and local councils. Despite intimidation, a lack of independent media, very public (and threatening) statements by government officials, the presence of police in polling stations, and the inability of the millions of emigrants to vote, unofficial results from polling places seem to confirm that longtime opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai should be elected president. Financial Times reports that independent observers put the race at Tsvangirai 55%, President Robert Mugabe 36% (with most of the remaining votes presumably going to ex-government minister Simba Makoni). These tallies came from about two-thirds of polling stations, albeit more heavily weighted toward the opposition-heavy urban areas.
There are a lot more questions this time than in previous elections, however. In 2002, the entire government apparatus still backed President Mugabe; when counting stopped with Tsvangirai in the lead, and suddenly Mugabe had won, the opposition had few options. This time around, there are cracks in the leadership, evinced by Makoni's breakaway campaign (which does not appear, however, to have had a great deal of success). These cracks are much the result of the disastrous economy (including inflation over 100,000%, price controls which have stifled production and restrictions on bank withdrawals) which even some rural dwellers as well as civil servants, all traditional backers of Mugabe, must accredit to the horrible economic reign of Mugabe and ZANU-PF.
With the delay in the release of results, one can conjecture that, perhaps, the leadership is unsure how to proceed as they lose by a clear margin. The MDC has already declared preliminary victory, not wanting to be caught flat-footed like in 2002. Reports state that riot police are being deployed on the streets--perhaps in preparation for the announcement of the "results." Could the leadership hope to carry out a quick arrest of leading opposition figures to stifle any protests? And how strong is the MDC's grassroots organization this time? In the past, protests have been brutally suppressed, including the breaking of Tsvangirai's skull just two years ago.
There are three possibilities:
(1) Mugabe concedes. Not likely.
(2) The electoral commission announces that a runoff will be needed as no candidate reached 50 percent of the vote. While this seems like a "compromise" to some (I think I actually saw that word used in a BBC article), it's the worst option, as it gives another period for repression to intensify and magnifies the chance of violence.
(3) Mugabe is proclaimed the winner, in which case, the MDC will probably try to begin some sort of protests, and the government will try to preempt them. The presence of riot police on the streets may testify to the beginning of this strategy.
At any rate, we should know the "official results" within 24 hours.
There are a lot more questions this time than in previous elections, however. In 2002, the entire government apparatus still backed President Mugabe; when counting stopped with Tsvangirai in the lead, and suddenly Mugabe had won, the opposition had few options. This time around, there are cracks in the leadership, evinced by Makoni's breakaway campaign (which does not appear, however, to have had a great deal of success). These cracks are much the result of the disastrous economy (including inflation over 100,000%, price controls which have stifled production and restrictions on bank withdrawals) which even some rural dwellers as well as civil servants, all traditional backers of Mugabe, must accredit to the horrible economic reign of Mugabe and ZANU-PF.
With the delay in the release of results, one can conjecture that, perhaps, the leadership is unsure how to proceed as they lose by a clear margin. The MDC has already declared preliminary victory, not wanting to be caught flat-footed like in 2002. Reports state that riot police are being deployed on the streets--perhaps in preparation for the announcement of the "results." Could the leadership hope to carry out a quick arrest of leading opposition figures to stifle any protests? And how strong is the MDC's grassroots organization this time? In the past, protests have been brutally suppressed, including the breaking of Tsvangirai's skull just two years ago.
There are three possibilities:
(1) Mugabe concedes. Not likely.
(2) The electoral commission announces that a runoff will be needed as no candidate reached 50 percent of the vote. While this seems like a "compromise" to some (I think I actually saw that word used in a BBC article), it's the worst option, as it gives another period for repression to intensify and magnifies the chance of violence.
(3) Mugabe is proclaimed the winner, in which case, the MDC will probably try to begin some sort of protests, and the government will try to preempt them. The presence of riot police on the streets may testify to the beginning of this strategy.
At any rate, we should know the "official results" within 24 hours.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Business
There will be no posting until next Saturday at the earliest, as I am headed out of town for a while.
Friday anthem - Maamme/Vårt land
Maamme ("Our Land"), the de facto national anthem of Finland, is in the tradition of non-nationalistic Scandinavian anthems which behold the beauty of the North. Indeed, the original Swedish text ("Vårt land") does not mention Finland. The music (by Frederik Pacius) and words (by Johan Runeberg) were written in the 1840s and translated into Finnish in 1867 (where a mention of "Suomi" was added). As Finnish and Swedish are both official languages of Finland, both versions are official. The same melody was later used to create Estonia's national anthem.
The Wikipedia article is good and includes lyrics, though note the English translation is based on the Swedish and not the Finnish lyrics.
Below is a video of Finnish singer Tarja Turunen singing the anthem at Independence Day festivities. She sings Finnish verse 1, Swedish verse 1, Finnish verse 2.
Here is a choral a cappella version including some images of Finland:
The Wikipedia article is good and includes lyrics, though note the English translation is based on the Swedish and not the Finnish lyrics.
Below is a video of Finnish singer Tarja Turunen singing the anthem at Independence Day festivities. She sings Finnish verse 1, Swedish verse 1, Finnish verse 2.
Here is a choral a cappella version including some images of Finland:
Monday, March 10, 2008
Thoughts on the Spanish election
The Spanish government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero won reelection on Sunday, gaining five seats in the process. However, the results were mixed for both the Socialists and the opposition People's Party.
Almost all the Socialist gains came from cannibalizing smaller leftist partner parties. Here is a list of PSOE gains:
Other trends from this election:
To summarize, then: trends are favorable for the two big parties, and in particular for the PP, but for the PP to capitalize, it must continue to abandon its rigidity and continue to make gains in former PSOE strongholds such as Andalucía. And if Spanish democracy is not to become rigid and stagnate, the parties must continue to broaden their platforms and appeal to large groups of centrist voters, or else make systemic changes to create more "swing seats."
Results at the Spanish Ministry of Interior.
Almost all the Socialist gains came from cannibalizing smaller leftist partner parties. Here is a list of PSOE gains:
- Almería (the constituency gained a seat which went to PSOE)
- Barcelona, 2 (gained from the Esquerra and Iniciativa per Catalunya-Verds, two leftist parties)
- Girona (gained from the Esquerra)
- Guipúzcoa (gained from the Basque social democrats, Eusko Alkartasuna)
- Las Palmas (gained from the Canarian regionalists)
- Ourense (gained from the PP)
- Tarragona (gained from the Esquerra)
- Toledo (constituency gained a seat which went to PSOE)
- Vizcaya (gained from the Basque Nationalist Party, EAJ-PNV)
- Zaragoza (gained from the Aragonese leftists, Chunta Aragonesista)
- Alicante (constituency gained a seat which went to PP)
- Almería (gained from PSOE)
- Cádiz (gained from PSOE)
- Ciudad Real (gained from PSOE)
- Lleida (gained from Esquerra)
- Madrid (gained from PSOE/far-left Izquierda Unida)
- Málaga (gained from PSOE)
- Murcia (constituency gained a seat which went to PP)
- Valencia (gained from leftist Entesa)
Other trends from this election:
- The United Left is almost gone. The country's "third force," the United Left coalition, consisting mainly of the formerly-powerful Communist Party of Spain, has almost vanished from the scene. In the last election, the United Left just missed the 5% needed to form an official parliamentary group and won only 5 seats; that was their worst result ever. This time around, they did far worse, taking only 3.8% and winning just one seat each in Madrid and Barcelona. Their share of the vote remained in third nationwide, but as it is dispersed across provinces in a small-constituency proportional system, they have no hope of being elected in most areas, and they probably won't rebound. They are far from their heyday of being elected in places like Asturias and Córdoba.
- The big parties gained. Together, the PSOE and PP went from 312 to 322 seats, leaving only 28 seats (less than 10%) for other parties; the two big parties took 83.8% of the vote. Losses were felt most strongly by the Catalan Left (Esquerra), which lost 5 of its 8 seats (4 of those losses were to the Socialists). However, the Basque nationalists lost a seat, the Canarian regionalists lost a seat, and the Basque social democrats and the Aragonese regionalists lost their only seats. This is a qualified victory for those who don't support excessive regionalization (though the Socialists gained some of their popularity in Catalonia through their pro-regional policies, and some of the changes in the Basque country might be due to a onetime "sympathy vote" after the assassination of a former Basque Socialist councillor).
- Most provinces were stable. Along with the gains by big parties... in 31 of 52 constituencies, there was no change at all in the seat allocations. Another six constituencies saw change just because they gained or lost a seat due to population. This leaves only 15 constituencies where a seat actually changed hands. Only in the large cities of Madrid and Barcelona did more than one seat change hands. That is to say that winning a seat on the list of the PP or PSOE is essentially a guarantee to election, since the PP and PSOE are essentially "guaranteed" their seats. What will be interesting to see in following years is if the vote "locks in" with few changes or if the PP and PSOE are able to enlarge their platforms to court more centrist voters. There have been steps in that direction from both, but neither has moved enough ideologically to strongly appeal to large groups from the other side (in particular, the PP has had trouble with this). If the former occurs and the vote stabilizes, will Spain see a loss in interest at the polls? (And will Spain see a loss in interest anyway, especially in the smaller constituencies which seem to have no hope of changing a seat in one direction or the other? In the context of three- or four-seat constituencies, the vote swings required to move a seat are pretty big!)
To summarize, then: trends are favorable for the two big parties, and in particular for the PP, but for the PP to capitalize, it must continue to abandon its rigidity and continue to make gains in former PSOE strongholds such as Andalucía. And if Spanish democracy is not to become rigid and stagnate, the parties must continue to broaden their platforms and appeal to large groups of centrist voters, or else make systemic changes to create more "swing seats."
Results at the Spanish Ministry of Interior.
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Spain: Zapatero gets another term
It appears, from incomplete returns, that the two big parties have made gains in Spain's general elections. With about 75% counted, the Socialists (PSOE) are in line to win 168 seats, eight short of an outright majority, and if numbers hold up, the PSOE can team up with the Catalan Left and the United Left to pass legislation. The Senate appears also that it will be closer. See the Spanish Ministry of Interior for returns; more later.
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Is it the 1700s again?
At the Washington Post today, an opinion piece that makes me wonder about that very question.
Columnist Charlotte Allen says that:
(1) WHAT?!?!?
(2) Is this some sort of satire? I don't think so, based on this opinion column from 2005 regarding the Larry Summers events at Harvard. Allen states that feminism is one of three 20th-century totalitarian ideologies (along with communism and Nazism). She then makes essentially the same argument as here.
Apparently, we're still a little behind the Victorian Age...
Columnist Charlotte Allen says that:
- Hillary Clinton's campaign has been undermined by "every stereotypical flaw of the female sex."
- Women always fall for "the hysterical, the superficial and the gooily sentimental," citing historical literature and "Grey's Anatomy" to back up her claims.
- Women get into more accidents! (Sure, the odds that men's accidents are fatal are 3 times as high, but so what?)
- Men's brains are bigger! (I've seen the evidence that men have a higher distribution in terms of intelligence--i.e., there are more men on the very high and very low end--but that proves what, exactly?)
- A made-up story about how women had to remember where berries were back when humans were hunter-gatherers! (That is supposed to prove something?)
So I don't understand why more women don't relax, enjoy the innate abilities most of us possess (as well as the ones fewer of us possess) and revel in the things most important to life at which nearly all of us excel: tenderness toward children and men and the weak and the ability to make a house a home. (Even I, who inherited my interior-decorating skills from my Bronx Irish paternal grandmother, whose idea of upgrading the living-room sofa was to throw a blanket over it, can make a house a home.) Then we could shriek and swoon and gossip and read chick lit to our hearts' content and not mind the fact that way down deep, we are . . . kind of dim.So, I guess my question is... well, I have 2 questions:
(1) WHAT?!?!?
(2) Is this some sort of satire? I don't think so, based on this opinion column from 2005 regarding the Larry Summers events at Harvard. Allen states that feminism is one of three 20th-century totalitarian ideologies (along with communism and Nazism). She then makes essentially the same argument as here.
Apparently, we're still a little behind the Victorian Age...
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Friday anthem - God Defend New Zealand/E Ihowa Atua
New Zealand is the only country in the world with two official national anthems. Many countries have a "national" anthem and a "royal" anthem, but in NZ, "God Defend New Zealand" and "God Save the Queen/King" are co-anthems. In reality, "God Defend NZ" is much more commonly played as the national anthem.
The song was first performed in 1876; two years later, it was first translated into Maori, and the plethora of vowels in Maori is clear from the shorter length of the Maori version (as more vowels = more short syllables). The meaning of "Pacific's triple star" is still unclear; it could stand for a Maori symbol, for the Southern Cross or for the three largest islands in NZ, to quote three theories.
The anthem became official in 1976 after the presentation of a petition to the House. Today, the Maori first verse is typically sung before the English first verse. Full lyrics and a history are available from the government of NZ; the Maori lyrics and their English translation are here.
There are lots of videos online for this one; the NZ government site linked to above also has several mp3s.
This version is a video formerly played on an NZ TV station; it includes two verses in Maori and three in English.
The video below is NZ singer Hayley Westenra singing both "God Defend NZ" and "God Save the Queen" at a memorial dedication in Britain.
The song was first performed in 1876; two years later, it was first translated into Maori, and the plethora of vowels in Maori is clear from the shorter length of the Maori version (as more vowels = more short syllables). The meaning of "Pacific's triple star" is still unclear; it could stand for a Maori symbol, for the Southern Cross or for the three largest islands in NZ, to quote three theories.
The anthem became official in 1976 after the presentation of a petition to the House. Today, the Maori first verse is typically sung before the English first verse. Full lyrics and a history are available from the government of NZ; the Maori lyrics and their English translation are here.
There are lots of videos online for this one; the NZ government site linked to above also has several mp3s.
This version is a video formerly played on an NZ TV station; it includes two verses in Maori and three in English.
The video below is NZ singer Hayley Westenra singing both "God Defend NZ" and "God Save the Queen" at a memorial dedication in Britain.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Decaying suburbs?
An interesting article at The Atlantic posits the idea of residential single-family suburbs turning into tomorrow's low income communities, homes divided into rental units, while cities redevelop and gentrify.
Key idea paragraph:
Key idea paragraph:
For 60 years, Americans have pushed steadily into the suburbs, transforming the landscape and (until recently) leaving cities behind. But today the pendulum is swinging back toward urban living, and there are many reasons to believe this swing will continue. As it does, many low-density suburbs and McMansion subdivisions, including some that are lovely and affluent today, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and ’70s—slums characterized by poverty, crime, and decay.It's interesting to think about. While I certainly could believe it, I'd like to know more about the reasons for these changes other than just "there's lots of demand out there." They said that about Clear Pepsi.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Michelle Obama in Houston
Michelle Obama spoke at UH in front of an estimated 1200 supporters last night. Michelle is a great speaker. She hit mostly the same points that you can see in the Youtube video (Part 1 here). The clip embedded here is a short bit of the actual Houston rally.
Those of you who know me can check out the picture with the article. As I headed off the stage, I got to shake the hand of the introductory speaker. I thought of absolutely nothing to say to him. Not one of my finer moments.
Those of you who know me can check out the picture with the article. As I headed off the stage, I got to shake the hand of the introductory speaker. I thought of absolutely nothing to say to him. Not one of my finer moments.
Tonight's Democratic debate
was pretty much useless and horribly repetitive. The best lines were Obama's quips--when they played Hillary parodying him at a campaign rally, and he responded "Sounds good"; and when they were debating the ridiculous Farrakhan question and he said "If Hillary thinks that reject is stronger than denounce, I'm happy to concede the point and I both reject AND denounce." Obama noting (during that same exchange) that he wouldn't be there if not for Jewish supporters of civil rights was good too.
The only point Hillary made that I don't think Obama rebutted effectively was during the interminable health-care segment. She hit him on mandates and he said something about "we want to make sure that kids have care but we don't want to force adults if the subsidies are not enough." Not good if your health-care plan is based on lowering costs sufficiently without mandates. I think there is a way to rebut but he didn't do it.
Hillary's SNL line was bad. That's two debates in a row where Hillary has had a horrible planned joke/line and it sounded whiny.
Last question... why can't we ever get NAFTA and immigration covered simultaneously, since everyone talks about "getting environmental and labor standards" (for Mexico obviously) and everyone talks about "improving economic conditions in Mexico" (to cut immigration long-term). Any thoughts from the candidates on how to reconcile the two? How, exactly, can we renegotiate NAFTA to be good for all Americans (in the short term)? How would Mexico get any advantage out of it, then?
The only point Hillary made that I don't think Obama rebutted effectively was during the interminable health-care segment. She hit him on mandates and he said something about "we want to make sure that kids have care but we don't want to force adults if the subsidies are not enough." Not good if your health-care plan is based on lowering costs sufficiently without mandates. I think there is a way to rebut but he didn't do it.
Hillary's SNL line was bad. That's two debates in a row where Hillary has had a horrible planned joke/line and it sounded whiny.
Last question... why can't we ever get NAFTA and immigration covered simultaneously, since everyone talks about "getting environmental and labor standards" (for Mexico obviously) and everyone talks about "improving economic conditions in Mexico" (to cut immigration long-term). Any thoughts from the candidates on how to reconcile the two? How, exactly, can we renegotiate NAFTA to be good for all Americans (in the short term)? How would Mexico get any advantage out of it, then?
Sunday, February 24, 2008
It's time for baseball!
I met someone there who was a contributor to Project Scoresheet, the sabermetric project from the early '80s that later evolved into STATS Inc. The project got its impetus from the refusal of baseball's official statistician (Elias) to share specific data. He told me about a conversation he'd had with one of the Astros' announcers at the time. "I was telling him about these numbers," the man said, "and he said to me, 'That's great, but nothing will ever replace the crack of the bat and the smell of the grass.' " And so it is.
Time for baseball once more!
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Quote of the week... McCain edition
Robert S. Bennett, McCain attorney, on McCain's denial of meeting with broadcaster Bud Paxson, and Paxson's claim that it occurred:
"We understood that he [McCain] did not speak directly with him [Paxson]. Now it appears he did speak to him. What is the difference?" (from the Washington Post).
"We understood that he [McCain] did not speak directly with him [Paxson]. Now it appears he did speak to him. What is the difference?" (from the Washington Post).
Incentive pay for teachers
Cross-posted at the other home.
One of the big movements in teaching is “incentive pay.” Now, the rules of rewards are simple: be clear on what is needed to get the reward, be sure everybody agrees that the rules are fair, and be sure the reward is aligned to desired behavior.
The
What does one need to do to get money (up to about $8,000) under ASPIRE? The answer, in short form, is (a) get your students to have high test scores and (b) be at a school that makes overall improvement in test scores. However, the way in which the “value added” to each student is calculated is unknown. HISD students take two tests: the Stanford 10 (for all grade levels), which is a waste of a week of instructional time, and the TAKS, which is the state exam (starting in third grade). Somehow, these scores are put into a formula that derives the “value added” for all students—i.e., evaluating a student based on how the student performs year-to-year, and not comparing grade cohorts to the previous cohort.
Now, “value added” is great as a concept, but there are two significant problems. One is that if students score extremely high, it’s hard to have “value added,” since it’s tough to beat expectations. How is that accounted for in the formula? I have no idea, since I haven’t seen it, and neither has my principal. This was a major problem for my school. We typically score very high, in particular because GT students (gifted-talented) have a magnet program at my school. Our percentage passing went from 93% two years ago to 92% last year (these are very high percentages for HISD). Therefore, we ended up in “Quadrant 4,” which in HISD lingo means that we get $150 per teacher in school bonuses—since we didn’t create more “value added.”
The second problem with “value added” is that there are sometimes changes from year-to-year that aren’t accounted for. The specific change I am referring to is the language of instruction. My students are in their first year of taking their tests in English—last year, they took all assessments in Spanish. Therefore, last year their teacher taught them almost all in Spanish, and this year I have to get them speaking English and passing writing, reading and math tests at a fourth-grade level. Obviously, their scores go down in fourth grade compared to third, because their English is not at a fourth-grade level. This is not accounted for by the ASPIRE system, which expects them to improve at the same rate regardless. Therefore, my behavior is negatively impacted. I got no individual bonus because my students didn’t improve their scores over last year’s—for obvious reasons.
So, there are unclear rules, and the rules are unfair as regards the bilingual program and how exactly “value added” is calculated. But do the rules motivate the right behavior, regardless? That depends on what you think the right behavior should be. Generally, what is desired is (a) more campus cooperation and, as a result, (b) higher test scores. The amount of disagreement about the rules and even the concept of ASPIRE means that (a) is grievously undermined. It doesn’t affect the behavior of the teachers at all and it creates a lot of anger when the bonuses are actually distributed. Our campus felt disregarded when we didn’t get a lot of school money, even when schools which are much worse than ours got far more money just for bringing up very low scores. Really, this means that (b) is not impacted. Is (b)—raising test scores—a worthy goal? Well, that’s a long discussion for another time.
What this shows, I think, is that a system which many people think of as “worthy” (the pay is being funded, I am told, by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) is really the subject of much disagreement and bitterness. “Incentive pay” as a concept for teachers remains a good idea, in theory. But, of course, there have been many other good theories that fail upon execution.
Friday anthem - Ој, свијетла мајска зоро
"Oj, svijetla majska zoro", or in English, "Oh, bright dawn of May," is the national anthem of Europe's now second-newest independent state, Montenegro. It is also quite catchy. It's existed in several forms since originating as a folk song, but the newest lyrics were adopted when the anthem itself was officially adopted, in 2004. At that time Yugoslavia was dissolved into the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro (which itself dissolved in 2006 after Montenegrins declared independence). The independent Montenegrin principality which existed before World War I used a different anthem.
My favorite Montenegro fact is that the name Montenegro ("Black Mountain") is often translated into other languages literally--English, which uses the Italian name, is an exception. In Montenegrin/Serbian, the name is Crna Gora; in Turkish, Karadağ; in Albanian, Mali i Zi.
There are four verses to the anthem; some of the lines are repeated in a certain pattern, however. For the full lyrics, see the Wikipedia article.
My favorite Montenegro fact is that the name Montenegro ("Black Mountain") is often translated into other languages literally--English, which uses the Italian name, is an exception. In Montenegrin/Serbian, the name is Crna Gora; in Turkish, Karadağ; in Albanian, Mali i Zi.
There are four verses to the anthem; some of the lines are repeated in a certain pattern, however. For the full lyrics, see the Wikipedia article.
Monday, February 18, 2008
The Economist agrees with me! Kind of
No less an authority than The Economist dislikes Kosovo's flag, too! (see below for image). They have a somewhat specific point for their objection, though: they don't like having "a precise outline of a map," since that makes it hard to reproduce. I suppose the one thing that makes Kosovo's flag distinctively sterile--a lack of symbolism--is the one thing that was necessary, but they could have done better even so.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Cyprus: Republic voters call for more dialogue?
In the Cypriot presidential elections this weekend, current President Tassos Papadopoulos has been eliminated for a three-horse race. Papadopoulos, who has been rather intransigent on reunification talks and torpedoed the Annan Plan, was regarded as the most hard-line of the three candidates running. This is a little surprising insofar as Papadopoulos had shown a modest lead in all the opinion polls. However, the final results were:
Ioannis Casoulides (Democratic Rally), 33.5%
Demetris Christophias (AKEL), 33.3%
Tassos Papadopoulos (Democratic Party), 31.8%
Casoulides is the candidate of the conservative Democratic Rally of former president Glafcos Clerides, who endorsed the Annan Plan for reunification. He is generally seen as the most capable of reaching a negotiated solution. The second round will be held in one week, on February 24.
Ioannis Casoulides (Democratic Rally), 33.5%
Demetris Christophias (AKEL), 33.3%
Tassos Papadopoulos (Democratic Party), 31.8%
Casoulides is the candidate of the conservative Democratic Rally of former president Glafcos Clerides, who endorsed the Annan Plan for reunification. He is generally seen as the most capable of reaching a negotiated solution. The second round will be held in one week, on February 24.
It's done.
Not "done" as in the sense of "resolved," but "done" as in the sense of "finally occurred," that is. Kosovo declared independence today. Luckily, it appears that the largest war this has set off is the edit war on Wikipedia's Kosovo page, the lead of which has changed approximately 532 times today.
There's still a lot more to resolve--for example, Serbia (and Russia) mildly disagrees with the whole independence thing--but in the spirit of celebration, the Kosovan government started things off by adopting the world's ugliest flag (see below, image from Wikipedia). They managed not only to copy the Bosnian flag, but to make it much, much worse. The Albanians will no doubt continue using the Albanian flag (perhaps the real intention behind adopting a horrible flag, anyway).
Many countries, including some EU countries, won't recognize Kosovo's independence, starting of course with Serbia and opportunistic big-power ally Russia--this means that Kosovo can't join the UN for the foreseeable future due to Russia's Council veto. But EU members who won't recognize independence, generally for self-interested reasons, including Greece and Cyprus (due to the Northern Cyprus separatist issue), Bulgaria (Russian relations, perhaps?), Romania (Russian relations, too, but also maybe solidarity with Moldova over Transnistria?), and Spain (which has its own problems with ethnic separatism).
On the other hand, France (no more Corsica problem), Germany, Britain and Belgium (following its national motto of "evercloser union more secession"), along with the US, are expected to recognize Kosovo's independence in the coming days (of course, Albania will too). On the ground, nothing really will be changing except for the arrival of the UN mission, and the northern part of Kosovo remains under de facto Serb control. However, we can look forward to the country adopting a (horrible?) national anthem, too, as well as of course a constitution, which should be coming in the next few months.
There's still a lot more to resolve--for example, Serbia (and Russia) mildly disagrees with the whole independence thing--but in the spirit of celebration, the Kosovan government started things off by adopting the world's ugliest flag (see below, image from Wikipedia). They managed not only to copy the Bosnian flag, but to make it much, much worse. The Albanians will no doubt continue using the Albanian flag (perhaps the real intention behind adopting a horrible flag, anyway).
Many countries, including some EU countries, won't recognize Kosovo's independence, starting of course with Serbia and opportunistic big-power ally Russia--this means that Kosovo can't join the UN for the foreseeable future due to Russia's Council veto. But EU members who won't recognize independence, generally for self-interested reasons, including Greece and Cyprus (due to the Northern Cyprus separatist issue), Bulgaria (Russian relations, perhaps?), Romania (Russian relations, too, but also maybe solidarity with Moldova over Transnistria?), and Spain (which has its own problems with ethnic separatism).
On the other hand, France (no more Corsica problem), Germany, Britain and Belgium (following its national motto of "ever
Friday, February 08, 2008
Friday anthem - Mawtini
Mawtini (Arabic - "My Homeland") is currently the national anthem of Iraq, but the anthem has its roots in Palestine. The anthem was written at a time of anti-British fervor in the Palestine Mandate, 1934, just before the Arab revolt against the British mandatory government erupted in 1936. Since then, it has become a song used in many Arab countries, and is in its second stint as national anthem of Iraq. There's a clear anger in the song, a sense that there's a fight on against external enemies who are denying security to the homeland--common in national anthems, certainly true of the Palestine in 1934 as well as today, and true in Iraq as well.
Best lines (from the first verse, referring to the homeland): Will I see you? / Safe and comfortable / sound and honored / Will I see you in your eminence / reaching the stars?
See Wiki for the full lyrics and a good Latin transliteration.
The Youtube I post here is a beautiful rendition from Iraqi singer Ilham al-Madfa'i along with pictures of Iraq. Note that he changes two lines in the second stanza--to what end, I don't know.
There is also a good version here which posts the Arabic lyrics along with a chorus singing the song. I don't have any clue what the rest of the site is about, but it's a good rendition of the anthem.
Best lines (from the first verse, referring to the homeland): Will I see you? / Safe and comfortable / sound and honored / Will I see you in your eminence / reaching the stars?
See Wiki for the full lyrics and a good Latin transliteration.
The Youtube I post here is a beautiful rendition from Iraqi singer Ilham al-Madfa'i along with pictures of Iraq. Note that he changes two lines in the second stanza--to what end, I don't know.
There is also a good version here which posts the Arabic lyrics along with a chorus singing the song. I don't have any clue what the rest of the site is about, but it's a good rendition of the anthem.
Will WA go for Obama?
I certainly don't have any unique insight on this, having been out of the state for one and a half years, but certainly a lot of people I know who are still there are excited about Obama; polls show Obama out in the lead. While Clinton has a 6-3 superdelegate advantage in the state, the #3 for Obama is the just-now endorsement of Gov. Christine Gregoire; Clinton's mostly committed a long time ago. Obama drew a packed house at KeyArena as they were turning people away at the doors an hour ahead of time. Amazing. It will certainly be a proud moment for me if my home state votes for change!
Chad: back to normal...
Looks like everything in Chad is, as much as possible, back to normal--i.e. most people are still poor, the government is dysfunctional and corrupt, and instead of rebels in the capital, there's just a low-level insurgency. Seemed as though Sarkozy was really going to go through with not supporting Déby's government for a little while... then it turned out they just got the Security Council to legitimize it. There's certainly a good case for France to support Déby, for the reasons in my previous post, and really no argument that the rebels are a better option; but it will be disappointing not to see some serious pressure on Déby's government on human rights and transparency at this point.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Tadić reelected in Serbia
Pro-European candidate Boris Tadić won reelection by a slim margin in the runoff over nationalist Tomislav Nikoli
Commemorating Palestinian villages
According to a report in Ha'aretz, the Jewish National Fund will place signs in parks which were formerly occupied by Palestinian villages. For those not familiar with the Israeli land ownership system, the Jewish National Fund owns some parts of Israeli land but is also the custodian of "absentee lands"--i.e. lands of Palestinian refugees (including those who were in Israeli territory at the cease-fire but not actually on their land).
About 500 former Palestinian villages were demolished. According to the organization Zochrot, which is fighting for the commemoration, there are 86 former villages within the boundaries of national parks; the JNF has reportedly will commemorate 31, placing information about the villages on their former sites.
There are different ways to look at this move. A cynic would say that the JNF wants to accelerate the process of historicizing and making everything a fait accompli, as has always been Israel's strategy; but realistically, it's almost certain no Palestinian will return to these demolished villages to live. Note that the organization, Zochrot (Remembering), which is pushing for the commemoration, supports the right of return for Palestinian refugees, so they clearly hope that such moves will keep the memory alive as older refugees who went through Nakba continue to die out. I would think a bigger question is, what about the other 450 villages that aren't yet commemorated?
It's also sad that most of these plaques will probably be vandalized by right-wingers. The Ha'aretz article shows a standing sign which had already been mostly removed. Just another reminder that the issue is far from being ancient history.
About 500 former Palestinian villages were demolished. According to the organization Zochrot, which is fighting for the commemoration, there are 86 former villages within the boundaries of national parks; the JNF has reportedly will commemorate 31, placing information about the villages on their former sites.
There are different ways to look at this move. A cynic would say that the JNF wants to accelerate the process of historicizing and making everything a fait accompli, as has always been Israel's strategy; but realistically, it's almost certain no Palestinian will return to these demolished villages to live. Note that the organization, Zochrot (Remembering), which is pushing for the commemoration, supports the right of return for Palestinian refugees, so they clearly hope that such moves will keep the memory alive as older refugees who went through Nakba continue to die out. I would think a bigger question is, what about the other 450 villages that aren't yet commemorated?
It's also sad that most of these plaques will probably be vandalized by right-wingers. The Ha'aretz article shows a standing sign which had already been mostly removed. Just another reminder that the issue is far from being ancient history.
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Chad: change of dictators?
We have drama today in the African nation of Chad, where apparently, rebel forces were able to make it into the capital of N'Djamena and all the way to the presidential palace. It seems that President Idriss Déby is still in control of at least part of the capital, and he's not gone, but everything is far from certain. This echoes a rebel strike in 2006 where they made it to the National Assembly building but were repulsed.
Chad is one of those countries where things like this are possible because, outside the capital (and keypresidential properties oil fields), there really isn't too much of a government. One of the terms for such places is "failed states," though there is certainly some question as to whether Chad ever enrolled in the course to begin with. Anyway, these rebels are backed by Sudan, and Chad backs rebels in Darfur, so this does have some international relevance as well.
President Déby is certainly no democrat. Technically, he's "elected" against "opponents," but he did have the minor incumbency advantage of coming to power in a rebellion in 1990 which ousted his former boss, Hissène Habré, who ruled from 1982-1990. Chad has a long and storied history of aides and deputies deposing their previous employers, which also appears to be the case with our current rebel, Mahamat Nouri, who apparently has been a top gun for both presidents. (While I'm not a Chad expert, I do get the sense that a large number of people in the narrative change sides frequently in an opportunistic fashion). Nouri heads the "Union of Forces for Democracy and Development." This name is undoubtedly accurate insofar as it is (maybe) a union of some type of forces.
Déby, by the way, is hated by most people after changing the constitution to allow himself yet another term in office in 2006--not that he was Mr. Popular before then, having stuffed the army with members of his small Zaghawa group. He's also the one who gave the finger to the World Bank, taking the money out of that account which was supposed to be for "long-term development" use and spending it (surprise!) on the military.
Now, there is no reason to believe that Nouri would be any different than Déby, at least that I can figure out. This makes reason #1 that the French continue to back Déby. Better the devil you know, right? Reason #2 would be the Sudanese support for the rebels; no need to make Sudan feel more secure what with everything going on in Darfur. Reason #3 would be the danger of creating more instability, not just in Sudan but also in the neighboring Central African Republic, which, if it were a pigs' house, would definitively be of straw. It will be interesting to see what develops in the next 48-72 hours with regard to the situation.
Chad is one of those countries where things like this are possible because, outside the capital (and key
President Déby is certainly no democrat. Technically, he's "elected" against "opponents," but he did have the minor incumbency advantage of coming to power in a rebellion in 1990 which ousted his former boss, Hissène Habré, who ruled from 1982-1990. Chad has a long and storied history of aides and deputies deposing their previous employers, which also appears to be the case with our current rebel, Mahamat Nouri, who apparently has been a top gun for both presidents. (While I'm not a Chad expert, I do get the sense that a large number of people in the narrative change sides frequently in an opportunistic fashion). Nouri heads the "Union of Forces for Democracy and Development." This name is undoubtedly accurate insofar as it is (maybe) a union of some type of forces.
Déby, by the way, is hated by most people after changing the constitution to allow himself yet another term in office in 2006--not that he was Mr. Popular before then, having stuffed the army with members of his small Zaghawa group. He's also the one who gave the finger to the World Bank, taking the money out of that account which was supposed to be for "long-term development" use and spending it (surprise!) on the military.
Now, there is no reason to believe that Nouri would be any different than Déby, at least that I can figure out. This makes reason #1 that the French continue to back Déby. Better the devil you know, right? Reason #2 would be the Sudanese support for the rebels; no need to make Sudan feel more secure what with everything going on in Darfur. Reason #3 would be the danger of creating more instability, not just in Sudan but also in the neighboring Central African Republic, which, if it were a pigs' house, would definitively be of straw. It will be interesting to see what develops in the next 48-72 hours with regard to the situation.
Friday anthem - La Marcha Real
I'm late on what is only the second Friday anthem... not a good start, I know.
Today's national anthem is the anthem of Spain, La Marcha Real (The Royal March), sometimes referred to as the Marcha Granadera (March of the Grenadiers). It's been Spain's national anthem since sometime in the 18th century, with only a quick interruption from 1931-39 when the Second Republic introduced the Himno de Riego instead (that anthem celebrates General del Riego's installation of the liberal First Republic). Franco then restored the Marcha Real.
Spain's national anthem has been in the news recently (as I noted in a recent post); the Spanish Olympic Committee was intending to submit a petition to parliament to adopt a new set of lyrics. However, it appears that today in Spain, there are no lyrics which would be acceptable to everyone, given the separatism, regionalism and left-right schisms that persist. Therefore, the anthem remains wordless.
Many on the Right still sing the lyrics written by the nationalist José María Pemán during the Franco era, which you can see by heading to the Wiki article.
Today's national anthem is the anthem of Spain, La Marcha Real (The Royal March), sometimes referred to as the Marcha Granadera (March of the Grenadiers). It's been Spain's national anthem since sometime in the 18th century, with only a quick interruption from 1931-39 when the Second Republic introduced the Himno de Riego instead (that anthem celebrates General del Riego's installation of the liberal First Republic). Franco then restored the Marcha Real.
Spain's national anthem has been in the news recently (as I noted in a recent post); the Spanish Olympic Committee was intending to submit a petition to parliament to adopt a new set of lyrics. However, it appears that today in Spain, there are no lyrics which would be acceptable to everyone, given the separatism, regionalism and left-right schisms that persist. Therefore, the anthem remains wordless.
Many on the Right still sing the lyrics written by the nationalist José María Pemán during the Franco era, which you can see by heading to the Wiki article.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Quote of the night
"Our jobs are being sought by foreign countries, like Asia and India." --Mitt Romney in his concession speech
Monday, January 28, 2008
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Russian presidential election: not quite as close
Dmitry Medvedev is probably not quite so tense as Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton these days. Results from a recent poll (January 18-21) show Putin's chosen heir with 82%, though to be fair, that is just a 73% margin over his closest rival, Gennady Zyuganov.
Just to make sure that the margin doesn't close, though, the electoral commission has disqualified the only man close to being regarded as an "opposition candidate," ex-PM Mikhail Kasyanov, who had a solid 1% in the poll (but it's a committed 1%). Also, undoubtedly, Medvedev can count on 99% turnout and 99% of the votes from Chechnya and Ingushetia, just like in the parliamentary elections. The Chechens love Vladimir Putin!
Just to make sure that the margin doesn't close, though, the electoral commission has disqualified the only man close to being regarded as an "opposition candidate," ex-PM Mikhail Kasyanov, who had a solid 1% in the poll (but it's a committed 1%). Also, undoubtedly, Medvedev can count on 99% turnout and 99% of the votes from Chechnya and Ingushetia, just like in the parliamentary elections. The Chechens love Vladimir Putin!
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Caroline Kennedy endorses Obama; Obama's SC victory speech
Caroline Kennedy has endorsed Barack Obama in an editorial in the NYT entitled "A President Like My Father." She says, in part, the following:
Meanwhile, if you didn't see it, Barack gave an amazing victory speech tonight in South Carolina after his 55-27% blowout of Hillary Clinton, calling on us to move past divisive politics that box people in, and look to the future and to addressing the problems that concern all of us. It was a denunciation of the manipulative, deceptive methods the Clintons have been using and a call to go down the path that will best serve the Democratic Party and all Americans.
Update: (1) Here is the transcript of Obama's speech from NYT.
(2) Ezra Klein says, re Hillary: "The chances for disappointment are less, but so are the chances for transformation." I agree, but (a) we need transformation and (b) I'm young and still believe in voting for the honest guy.
All my life, people have told me that my father changed their lives, that they got involved in public service or politics because he asked them to. And the generation he inspired has passed that spirit on to its children. I meet young people who were born long after John F. Kennedy was president, yet who ask me how to live out his ideals.Barack is an inspirational voice for the future for our generation, just as JFK was for his.Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible.
Meanwhile, if you didn't see it, Barack gave an amazing victory speech tonight in South Carolina after his 55-27% blowout of Hillary Clinton, calling on us to move past divisive politics that box people in, and look to the future and to addressing the problems that concern all of us. It was a denunciation of the manipulative, deceptive methods the Clintons have been using and a call to go down the path that will best serve the Democratic Party and all Americans.
Update: (1) Here is the transcript of Obama's speech from NYT.
(2) Ezra Klein says, re Hillary: "The chances for disappointment are less, but so are the chances for transformation." I agree, but (a) we need transformation and (b) I'm young and still believe in voting for the honest guy.
Opera relegalized in Turkmenistan: good thing or bad thing?
On the plus side, it looks like the autocratic government continues to at least restore a semblance of normality. Opera, the circus, ballet and other such pernicious foreign cultural influences are now legal again after being illegalized during the Years of the Rukhnama. (For other examples of the weirdness of Saparmurat Niyazov, Father of the Turkmen, I recommend checking out the archives of the Turkmenistan Project, which have weekly news summaries up through 2007).
The downside, of course, is that some people will have to listen to opera.
More seriously, it's also being reported that the Turkmen government will actually permit an international auditing of the country's gas reserves. To see, you know, if they really exist. Niyazov said they did, but depending on Niyazov's sanity was always inadvisable.
The downside, of course, is that some people will have to listen to opera.
More seriously, it's also being reported that the Turkmen government will actually permit an international auditing of the country's gas reserves. To see, you know, if they really exist. Niyazov said they did, but depending on Niyazov's sanity was always inadvisable.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Friday anthem - Auferstanden aus Ruinen
The national anthem of East Germany, "Auferstanden aus Ruinen" (English: Risen from Ruins). The Youtube includes many images of the DDR. ¡Qué Ostalgia! It reminds me of Good-bye, Lenin!, one of my favorite movies because it includes not one, but two national anthems in their entirety ("Auferstanden" and "Das Lied der Deutschen").
Anyway, the "fun fact" about "Auferstanden" is that it has exactly the same beat as "Das Lied der Deutschen," that is, each can be sung along with the other melody (the music for "Auferstanden" was by Hanns Eisler). Also, since the author of the lyrics (Johannes Becher) neglected to anticipate the incoming Cold War, the lyrics ("Germany, united fatherland!") had to be left behind somewhere in the '50s, leaving just the tune. Best other line: "If we unite as brothers, we will defeat the enemy of the people."
Anyway, the "fun fact" about "Auferstanden" is that it has exactly the same beat as "Das Lied der Deutschen," that is, each can be sung along with the other melody (the music for "Auferstanden" was by Hanns Eisler). Also, since the author of the lyrics (Johannes Becher) neglected to anticipate the incoming Cold War, the lyrics ("Germany, united fatherland!") had to be left behind somewhere in the '50s, leaving just the tune. Best other line: "If we unite as brothers, we will defeat the enemy of the people."
Electoral reform in Italy
Romano Prodi's government in Italy has fallen. However, Italy can't really go to elections yet, because the electoral system is defective. The current ridiculous system was introduced by Silvio Berlusconi's outgoing rightist government in a blatant bid to win the next elections. It allowed Prodi's Union coalition to sweep into office with a big majority in the House of Deputies, yet have only a two-vote margin in the Senate (whose confidence must be retained). This meant small parties could still play the blackmailer role, and one of them, UDEUR, a small Christian-democratic party most popular in the Naples area, left the coalition due to a corruption probe into the justice minister's wife.
It appears that Italy will have some sort of unity or technocratic government whose task is to bring the country to elections. All sorts of solutions have been mooted for the problem of the disproportionate power held by smaller parties in the large coalitions (especially on the left), even as far as bringing in first-past-the-post. (In Israel, which has the same problem, the same solutions have been mooted).
The Italian Constitutional Court has just okayed a referendum to go forward. From the Reuters link it seems that voters would vote "yes" or "no" to several different possibilities to be incorporated into a law. Of course, if that's the case, this sort of referendum is defective insofar as some of the possibilities approved might well be contradictory. But it may well result in something better than the political parties have managed to agree on.
If the big parties can put aside their rivalries, the best solution may well be the simplest--just forget about everything else, and impose a 4 or 5% threshold, distributing seats in the regions. Ban joint electoral lists or coalitions if it's necessary. MMP doesn't seem like a great idea--in prior years it was manipulated by the larger parties, who ran duplicate "front" parties in the constituencies to increase their parliamentary overhang (as is legal, but distasteful; it doesn't happen in Germany, New Zealand or Scotland, other places where MMP is used).
A threshold of 5% would likely allow in the center-left Democratic Party, the Communist Refoundation, the centrist/Christian-democratic Union of Christian and Center Democrats, the conservative Forza Italia, and the rightist National Alliance. Also possibly clearing the bar would be the socialist Democratic Left and the regionalist Northern League. A reasonable diversity of opinion, all in all, without allowing excessive proportionality to continue to paralyze government.
It appears that Italy will have some sort of unity or technocratic government whose task is to bring the country to elections. All sorts of solutions have been mooted for the problem of the disproportionate power held by smaller parties in the large coalitions (especially on the left), even as far as bringing in first-past-the-post. (In Israel, which has the same problem, the same solutions have been mooted).
The Italian Constitutional Court has just okayed a referendum to go forward. From the Reuters link it seems that voters would vote "yes" or "no" to several different possibilities to be incorporated into a law. Of course, if that's the case, this sort of referendum is defective insofar as some of the possibilities approved might well be contradictory. But it may well result in something better than the political parties have managed to agree on.
If the big parties can put aside their rivalries, the best solution may well be the simplest--just forget about everything else, and impose a 4 or 5% threshold, distributing seats in the regions. Ban joint electoral lists or coalitions if it's necessary. MMP doesn't seem like a great idea--in prior years it was manipulated by the larger parties, who ran duplicate "front" parties in the constituencies to increase their parliamentary overhang (as is legal, but distasteful; it doesn't happen in Germany, New Zealand or Scotland, other places where MMP is used).
A threshold of 5% would likely allow in the center-left Democratic Party, the Communist Refoundation, the centrist/Christian-democratic Union of Christian and Center Democrats, the conservative Forza Italia, and the rightist National Alliance. Also possibly clearing the bar would be the socialist Democratic Left and the regionalist Northern League. A reasonable diversity of opinion, all in all, without allowing excessive proportionality to continue to paralyze government.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
New flag for Iraq
The Iraqi parliament has approved a new flag design, eliminating the three green stars from the center band of the flag:
old flag
new flag
The three stars in the old Iraqi flag were for Iraq, Syria and Egypt, which under their Arab nationalist (Ba'ath in Iraq and Syria) leadership were supposed to form the United Arab Republic. The United Arab Republic, in any form, hasn't existed in around 45 years, plus it reminds everyone of the Ba'ath party, so they ditched the stars.
This is supposed to be a "temporary" design for when a new flag is agreed upon, theoretically next year. I will, however, be taking 2015 in the office betting pool.
Update: Changed on 25 January because Wiki changed the images on me. The "old" flag now comes from Flags of the World.
old flag
new flag
The three stars in the old Iraqi flag were for Iraq, Syria and Egypt, which under their Arab nationalist (Ba'ath in Iraq and Syria) leadership were supposed to form the United Arab Republic. The United Arab Republic, in any form, hasn't existed in around 45 years, plus it reminds everyone of the Ba'ath party, so they ditched the stars.
This is supposed to be a "temporary" design for when a new flag is agreed upon, theoretically next year. I will, however, be taking 2015 in the office betting pool.
Update: Changed on 25 January because Wiki changed the images on me. The "old" flag now comes from Flags of the World.
Martin Luther King, Jr., Day
I had, admittedly, not listened to Martin Luther King's speech "Why I Oppose the War in Vietnam," before today. It is worth 23 minutes to hear in its entirety.
Monday, January 21, 2008
The Belgian version of "intercultural"
An amusing (?) note from the Economist's EU blogger:
2008 is the European Year of Intercultural Dialogue. As such, the website highlights national projects done in each of the EU member states. There are 27 member states, and 29 projects. Why 29 projects? It seems that 26 member states have one project each, and Belgium submitted three--one intercultural project from the Flemings, one intercultural project from the Walloons, and one intercultural project from the tiny German-speaking community of Belgium. That's the true meaning of multiculturalism.
Guess we shouldn't read too much into it. After all, six months after their elections, they did finally manage to form a provisional government...
Update: I changed the title of the post, just because its dripping sarcasm is hard to pick up through a computer.
2008 is the European Year of Intercultural Dialogue. As such, the website highlights national projects done in each of the EU member states. There are 27 member states, and 29 projects. Why 29 projects? It seems that 26 member states have one project each, and Belgium submitted three--one intercultural project from the Flemings, one intercultural project from the Walloons, and one intercultural project from the tiny German-speaking community of Belgium. That's the true meaning of multiculturalism.
Guess we shouldn't read too much into it. After all, six months after their elections, they did finally manage to form a provisional government...
Update: I changed the title of the post, just because its dripping sarcasm is hard to pick up through a computer.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Serbia: second round, as expected, on high turnout
Radical Party candidate Tomislav Nikolić and current president/Democratic Party candidate Boris Tadić have finished 1-2 in the Serbian presidential election first round, as was widely expected. The greater surprise here was turnout, which was around 60 percent, well up from the last presidential poll in 2004 and roughly equivalent to turnout in last year's parliamentary poll.
Compared to the previous election, both leading candidates took higher shares of the vote (Nikolić at 39 percent and Tadić at 35 percent). A key question will be where supporters of the third-place candidate, Velimir Ilić of New Serbia (an ally of PM Vojislav Koštunica) decide to put their second-round votes.
If one assumes that Tadić takes most of the votes of Cedomir Jovanović (a liberal) and Ištvan Pastor (the Hungarian minority candidate) this gives him 43.2 percent; Nikolić gets the support of Milutin Mrkonijć (from Milosević's Socialists) for 45.4 percent. It therefore seems that much will turn on those who voted for Ilić, who took 7.6 percent in the first round. Note that in 2004, turnout for the second round was almost identical as for the first round.
RFE/RL has coverage. The numbers I have seen come from Wikipedia, and I am not sure of the original source.
Compared to the previous election, both leading candidates took higher shares of the vote (Nikolić at 39 percent and Tadić at 35 percent). A key question will be where supporters of the third-place candidate, Velimir Ilić of New Serbia (an ally of PM Vojislav Koštunica) decide to put their second-round votes.
If one assumes that Tadić takes most of the votes of Cedomir Jovanović (a liberal) and Ištvan Pastor (the Hungarian minority candidate) this gives him 43.2 percent; Nikolić gets the support of Milutin Mrkonijć (from Milosević's Socialists) for 45.4 percent. It therefore seems that much will turn on those who voted for Ilić, who took 7.6 percent in the first round. Note that in 2004, turnout for the second round was almost identical as for the first round.
RFE/RL has coverage. The numbers I have seen come from Wikipedia, and I am not sure of the original source.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
The day's other big election
While on Saturday, January 19, many people were paying attention to the caucuses in Nevada and the GOP primary in South Carolina, there was of course another earth-shattering election taking place. I refer, of course, to the general election in the Danish dependency of the Faroe Islands.
Interestingly, (and of more interest than this year's outcome), the Faroe Islands appear to have reached an equilibrium between four parties in their proportional-representation system, despite their minuscule size. Note that the Faroes have not just traditional left-right divisions, but also cleavages between pro-independence forces and pro-union (with Denmark) forces. The same four parties have been the largest in parliament since 1950 in this small island group of under 50,000 people (see Wikipedia for background).
No party, since that same year of 1950, has taken more than 27.5 percent of the vote; no party has ever held an absolute majority in parliament; and no party has even held more than 10 seats in parliament (26 to 33 seats total) since the 1946-47 period. From 1958 through 1980, the Social Democrats were marginally larger than the other parties (enjoying a 1- or 2-seat advantage after each election compared to their largest competitor), but this advantage no longer exists.
For this year's election, the electoral system was changed slightly, to eliminate regional constituencies which had resulted in slight disproportionalities. The system used this year allocates seats based on open lists for the entire territory.
Perhaps the biggest story in this year's uneventful election was the gain of almost 6 percent of the vote, and 2 seats, combined for the other two small parties in parliament. Other than that, the Social Democrats lost one seat, and all other parties remained even in terms of seats: Republic 8; Union Party 7; People's Party 7; Social Democrats 6; smaller parties 5. Summary in English is available at Parties and Elections.
Interestingly, (and of more interest than this year's outcome), the Faroe Islands appear to have reached an equilibrium between four parties in their proportional-representation system, despite their minuscule size. Note that the Faroes have not just traditional left-right divisions, but also cleavages between pro-independence forces and pro-union (with Denmark) forces. The same four parties have been the largest in parliament since 1950 in this small island group of under 50,000 people (see Wikipedia for background).
No party, since that same year of 1950, has taken more than 27.5 percent of the vote; no party has ever held an absolute majority in parliament; and no party has even held more than 10 seats in parliament (26 to 33 seats total) since the 1946-47 period. From 1958 through 1980, the Social Democrats were marginally larger than the other parties (enjoying a 1- or 2-seat advantage after each election compared to their largest competitor), but this advantage no longer exists.
For this year's election, the electoral system was changed slightly, to eliminate regional constituencies which had resulted in slight disproportionalities. The system used this year allocates seats based on open lists for the entire territory.
Perhaps the biggest story in this year's uneventful election was the gain of almost 6 percent of the vote, and 2 seats, combined for the other two small parties in parliament. Other than that, the Social Democrats lost one seat, and all other parties remained even in terms of seats: Republic 8; Union Party 7; People's Party 7; Social Democrats 6; smaller parties 5. Summary in English is available at Parties and Elections.
Still life with food
These still life photographs entirely made out of food are pretty crazy. They kind of remind me of the book Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, especially the end where everybody gets onto the food boats and leaves (see photograph #8, also notable for creative use of salmon).
Tadić looking for a second term in Serbia
Serbia goes to the polls tomorrow to elect a president. Expect current president Boris Tadić and Radical Party leader Tomislav Nikolić to advance to the second round. Interestingly, it looks like ultranationalist Nikolić is running a slick campaign (reportedly helped by a Western PR firm) while the pro-EU Tadić is showing the Serbian flag whenever he can. A good sign, at least, that the two are trying to appeal to crossover voters. PM Vojislav Kostunica is backing a small-party candidate to gain more leverage in the second round (he probably will back Tadić in the end).
The question is whether Serbia has an alternative to Europe (answer: no, unless it becomes a Russian puppet state). Russia has reportedly been trying to pressure the Serbs, but they only want a relationship on their terms (read: Russian control over gas, Russian economic/political ties, in return for Russian support on Kosovo).
Picking Nikolić would be a throwback to the old days. If Tadić can win over most of the Serbs who want continued economic growth (the #1 issue despite all the talk about Kosovo), he should squeak by in the runoff which is almost certain to come.
See the Economist or RFE/RL (and an analysis from RFE). Wikipedia entry here.
The question is whether Serbia has an alternative to Europe (answer: no, unless it becomes a Russian puppet state). Russia has reportedly been trying to pressure the Serbs, but they only want a relationship on their terms (read: Russian control over gas, Russian economic/political ties, in return for Russian support on Kosovo).
Picking Nikolić would be a throwback to the old days. If Tadić can win over most of the Serbs who want continued economic growth (the #1 issue despite all the talk about Kosovo), he should squeak by in the runoff which is almost certain to come.
See the Economist or RFE/RL (and an analysis from RFE). Wikipedia entry here.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
New Spanish anthem lyrics rejected...again
Yet again, Spaniards are unable to agree on an anthem. This time the idea was propelled by Spain's Olympic Committee, with the hope of having lyrics for Spain's athletes to sing in time for the next Olympics. Lyrics by a self-described unemployed "loser" from La Mancha were chosen by the panel of experts. Paulino Cubero said that "I wrote the anthem for the fatherland of the average people, of those that take the metro to go to work."
Apparently, the objections mainly came from the left, and wisely, Zapatero doesn't seem to have said much at all. Rajoy apparently didn't comment, while the leader of the small United Left, Gaspar Llamazares, was quite critical. However, there's been enough objections that the Committee has shelved the proposal, which was supposed to be debuted by Placido Domingo.
Honestly, if they can't agree on these lyrics, which ones will they agree on?
Apparently, the objections mainly came from the left, and wisely, Zapatero doesn't seem to have said much at all. Rajoy apparently didn't comment, while the leader of the small United Left, Gaspar Llamazares, was quite critical. However, there's been enough objections that the Committee has shelved the proposal, which was supposed to be debuted by Placido Domingo.
Honestly, if they can't agree on these lyrics, which ones will they agree on?
- ¡Viva España!
- Cantemos todos juntos
- con distinta voz
- y un solo corazón
- ¡Viva España!
- desde los verdes valles
- al inmenso mar,
- un himno de hermandad
- Ama a la patria
- pues sabe abrazar,
- bajo su cielo azul,
- pueblos en libertad
- Gloria a los hijos
- que a la Historia dan
- justicia y grandeza
- democracia y paz.
Selig's contract extended again
A couple days after being called out at Congress, Bud Selig's contract as commissioner has been unanimously extended again (through 2012). In his statements, Selig said: "By the time I leave, you won't recognize the sport." Not sure which is sadder: (1) that Selig thinks not recognizing the sport would be a good thing or that (2) he doesn't realize this is already the case. He's already done quite enough.
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