It's a sign of my obsession that I'm here writing this (hopefully short) blog entry instead of studying for my 2:30 final in Latin American Political Economy, although to be fair I've spent a number of hours thus far on the material.
The polls are closed in Iraq and no major incidents have been reported. It's an emotional day for everyone, as I've said I admire all the Iraqis who went out to vote today and the fact that they truly believe in the governance of their country by themselves. It is definitely a strong counterpoint to the cynicism we face here in the United States and all other democracies face from time to time, and though there are surely deficiencies in the system (especially in the American system from my POV) it is still democracy and we are still infinitely better off than most of the world.
I browsed Iraq the Model and the BBC today and found Omar and Mohammed generally optimistic (as always) and the BBC a bit more balanced although the BBC was also optimistic and reported the huge numbers of Iraqis turning out to vote and their enthusiasm for the process. They even quoted election officials as saying Anbar was relatively calm. One of the problems the BBC brought up was a female candidate from Basra who campaigned against the influence of the Islamist militia down there and pointed out how difficult the situation has become in the south for those who oppose the theocracy, and quite honestly that might be one of the biggest problems for a new government--how to avoid the partition of Iraq into different self governing states within a state as a "compromise" rather than creating a united and secular and liberal Iraq that many Iraqis (and we of course here in the U.S.) want to see.
Hopefully we will see a quicker ballot count this time around as last time it seemed to take forever to get some results. Admittedly, the most important thing is getting the count right, but in that regard a quicker count generally diminishes the possibility of fraud. The new Council of Representatives is due to be sworn in by year's end and the government formed rather quickly after that. Only after the results are out can there be any educated speculation about the composition and programme of a new government.
This was one of my favorite pictures, it is an Iraqi voter born in 1900 going to the polls today... the picture is from Iraq the Model and they have a lot of really great pictures of election day at the site, I encourage anyone reading this to check out their accounts from across the country. I am just going to link to it so nobody gets mad at me for breaking someone's rights...
http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/uploaded_images/oo184-783457.jpg
And now back to the books for the last couple hours!
Thursday, December 15, 2005
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Iraq is voting again!
The first voters in Iraq's parliamentary election are heading to the polls as the military, people in hospitals and prisons have voted and Iraqis abroad are voting as well. As before the major contenders are the Shia-religious UIA list, Allawi's secular list and the Kurdish united list, joined now by the National Accord Front of the Sunni.
The electoral system for this election is different as well, with most of the seats allocated on a provincial level by the d'Hondt system. This will ensure that all groups have representation regionally regardless of how many people turn out in the region. There is also a pool of national compensatory seats which will probably help out smaller parties which might have been left out due to the smaller constituency size, as well as make the overall result proportional.
It would probably be correct to anticipate the UIA triumph but it will certainly be of a smaller proportion than in the last election, with the addition of the Sunni and increasing popularity of secular national lists such as Allawi's and the others led by al-Kubba and Chalabi.
All that is necessary for a government under the new constitution is an absolute majority of the House of Representatives (and not two-thirds as under the TAL) so the Shia-Kurdish coalition might be able to continue governing, but whether that coalition will survive or whether the Kurds will leave to work with someone like Allawi and other secular lists is open to question.
At any rate, it is exciting to see the Iraqis voting again with enthusiasm for the permanent government and to see the constitution implemented and in action. And while I may have disagreed with the reasoning for the war in the first place I can't help but be excited for the people who have the right to choose their government for the first time and be happy with the enthusiasm and alacrity they have clearly displayed over the past months in embracing the democratic process.
The electoral system for this election is different as well, with most of the seats allocated on a provincial level by the d'Hondt system. This will ensure that all groups have representation regionally regardless of how many people turn out in the region. There is also a pool of national compensatory seats which will probably help out smaller parties which might have been left out due to the smaller constituency size, as well as make the overall result proportional.
It would probably be correct to anticipate the UIA triumph but it will certainly be of a smaller proportion than in the last election, with the addition of the Sunni and increasing popularity of secular national lists such as Allawi's and the others led by al-Kubba and Chalabi.
All that is necessary for a government under the new constitution is an absolute majority of the House of Representatives (and not two-thirds as under the TAL) so the Shia-Kurdish coalition might be able to continue governing, but whether that coalition will survive or whether the Kurds will leave to work with someone like Allawi and other secular lists is open to question.
At any rate, it is exciting to see the Iraqis voting again with enthusiasm for the permanent government and to see the constitution implemented and in action. And while I may have disagreed with the reasoning for the war in the first place I can't help but be excited for the people who have the right to choose their government for the first time and be happy with the enthusiasm and alacrity they have clearly displayed over the past months in embracing the democratic process.
Monday, December 12, 2005
Four more years... six more years?
After a brisk day of voting in Chile the ruling Concertación has taken a majority in the Congress of Deputies for another four-year term, controlling the lower house for 20 years (since the 1989 elections returned democracy). The opposition right-wing Alliance could not duplicate its best performance, from four years ago, and dropped to around 39% of the vote. Despite that, the Alliance remains overrepresented with 54 of the 120 seats, and the Concertación took 65 on 51-52% of the vote. The coalition of Communists and Humanists failed to win a single seat thanks to the two-seat Chilean constituencies.
Congress of Deputies results since 1989
*with 97% counted
The Alianza lost almost no seats (only 2.5%) despite a 5-6% drop in votes due to the electoral system. Now that this system is no longer constitutionally mandated, it would seem logical that the next government would do away with the system, replacing it perhaps with a regional MMP system (a measure I would not support).
The presidential elections
The failure of the Alliance to unite behind a single presidential candidate may have hurt its chances in the legislative race, but it did not affect the outcome of the election for the presidency. The leading candidate, Renovación Nacional's Sebastián Piñera, came out with just over 25% of the vote. The UDI's Joaquín Lavín, Alliance flag-bearer in 1999, took 23%, while the Concertación candidate Michelle Bachelet wound up with about 45% of the vote, meaning a runoff between her and Piñera (who likely stole many Christian Democrat votes).
The smart money is still on Bachelet to extend the Concertación to 22 years in the presidency, and be Chile's first female president, but the results indicate that it will be a tough race, much like the hard-fought 1999 contest.
Congress of Deputies results since 1989
| 1989 | % | 1993 | % | 1997 | % | 2001 | % | |
| Concertación | 69 | 51,49% | 70 | 55,40% | 69 | 50,51% | 62 | 47,90% |
| Alianza | 48 | 34,18% | 50 | 36,68% | 47 | 36,26% | 57 | 44,27% |
| list | 2005 | %* |
| Concertación | 65 | 51,8% |
| Alianza | 54 | 38,7% |
The Alianza lost almost no seats (only 2.5%) despite a 5-6% drop in votes due to the electoral system. Now that this system is no longer constitutionally mandated, it would seem logical that the next government would do away with the system, replacing it perhaps with a regional MMP system (a measure I would not support).
The presidential elections
The failure of the Alliance to unite behind a single presidential candidate may have hurt its chances in the legislative race, but it did not affect the outcome of the election for the presidency. The leading candidate, Renovación Nacional's Sebastián Piñera, came out with just over 25% of the vote. The UDI's Joaquín Lavín, Alliance flag-bearer in 1999, took 23%, while the Concertación candidate Michelle Bachelet wound up with about 45% of the vote, meaning a runoff between her and Piñera (who likely stole many Christian Democrat votes).
The smart money is still on Bachelet to extend the Concertación to 22 years in the presidency, and be Chile's first female president, but the results indicate that it will be a tough race, much like the hard-fought 1999 contest.
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