According to the calendar at the reference site Parties and Elections in Europe, following the Serbian election of last month, we've got a lull coming until March.
In March, Finland and Estonia, the twin Finnic nations (is that a legitimate adjective?), will head to the polls a couple of weeks apart. Estonia is first, and having been governed by various center-right coalitions since regaining independence, seems set to continue that trend. The country has grown extremely quickly and has gained a reputation for its innovation in e-government service provision. The interesting party to watch in the elections may be the recently founded Greens, who are apparently polling above 5 percent already with many undecided.
When Finland goes to the polls they figure to reelect the present coalition of the Finnish Center, the Social Democratic Party and the Swedish People's Party. Despite the occasional flare-up between the Center and Social Democrats, they are frequently in coalition together. In the polls, Center leader and current PM Matti Vanhanen is consistently well ahead of anyone else as a PM choice, but the SDP seems to be leading the party race, which could hand the post to SDP's Eero Heinäluoma. (SDP's Paavo Lipponen was prime minister 1995-2003). Either way, the clear public preference is a continuance of the coalition, which keeps the opposition conservative National Coalition party in the cold.
The other question to watch is whether Northern Ireland will hold an Assembly election in March. We should know soon whether or not this will go ahead. If so, expect the extremist parties (Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionists) to win pluralities on either side.
The British Isles will then see an active month of May. Wales and Scotland will elect their regional assemblies. While Scotland's SNP is ahead in the polls, they would need to form a coalition to have a majority at Holyrood, which might be tough with almost all other parties being unionist. That said, the current Labour-Lib Dem government might not win a majority either. This creates a possibly interesting role for the Lib Dems as SNP coalition partners.
Also voting in May will be Iceland, which apparently has been having some controversy lately about some environmentally questionable development projects backed by the center-right government. Spanish autonomous communities--except for the big ones like the Basques, Catalonia and Galicia--then vote at the end of May.
June is the end of this modest run, with the French holding legislative elections and the two-round presidential ballot. It doesn't seem prudent to make predictions, but all signs right now point to a Royal-Sarkozy showdown being won by the rightist Sarkozy. But hey, Le Pen made it into the runoff five years ago, so who knows?
As far as the overall European picture goes, the main story will be the French, since nothing will really change in Finland or Estonia.
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
He's cured!
I'm sure other people will comment on this with much more wit than I could ever hope to attain:
Ousted Pastor 'Completely Heterosexual'
Ousted Pastor 'Completely Heterosexual'
Forced by a gay sex scandal to resign as president of the National Association of Evangelicals, the Rev. Ted Haggard now feels that after three weeks of intensive counseling, he is “completely heterosexual,” says an overseer of the megachurch Mr. Haggard once led.If we could just get all those deniers who persist in their homosexual ways into therapy! Then they'd be cured for sure! Only question: would we be saved as a nation yet, or would we still have to bring back school prayer?
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Sunday, February 04, 2007
Celebrating 100 posts!
Well, this is my 100th post as a blogger. I started this whole thing up when I was a junior in college because I saw someone else do it and wanted to try it for myself. I'd been doing the whole "personal journal" thing but I wanted to move on and share my opinions with anyone interested.
On May 1, 2005 (almost two years ago now!) I put up my first posts, explaining my support for the Liberal Democrats in the British parliamentary election. Since then my views on some things have changed a bit; I continue to get more moderate as I grow, as is to be expected, I suppose. I've gone from being a big fan of socialism (in its ideal type) in high school to a rather loose type of social liberalism (in the European sense). That is to say that I still support rather more social programs than we see here in the States, but not in every case.
I still identify generally with the Party of European Socialists, which brings together all the social-democratic parties from the member states, but with a strong secondary liberal ("European liberal", that is to say more laissez-faire, not "American liberal") identification. It all depends on context, as I think the Swedish welfare state is a great thing in its context.
In Canada, I've gone from being an NDP sympathizer to more in the Liberal column, and while I liked Gerard Kennedy as a candidate, I had a strong feeling as the convention approached that Dion was going to take it. For the U.S. I hope that Canada continues its environmental emphasis and that actions from up north put more pressure on our government down here.
On the other hand, my views on some things are the same. I still think the German mixed-member proportional system is the best electoral system in most contexts. I still hope that someday American electoral reform will happen and I'm encouraged by events in Canada. And I'm still not a conservative. A few years back I challenged friends to name one issue on which I have conservative leanings. Nobody has succeeded yet, though I certainly can be classified as "moderate" in some areas.
As a commentator, I can only hope my opinions are becoming more coherent and justified. I've had less personal time yet, paradoxically, have blogged more since graduating from UW, probably because I've gone full bore into the news as my form of recreation. My baseball watching has continued to diminish, to my philosophical regret, but practical inaction; and of course, I have plenty to say now about the practical experiences of teaching, over at my other home.
So, there it is. How much longer will I keep it up? No idea. As long as it's personally fulfilling, I'll be here. And that's what it comes down to: as many or as few people as may read my writing, in the end, it's what I want to write about and share.
On May 1, 2005 (almost two years ago now!) I put up my first posts, explaining my support for the Liberal Democrats in the British parliamentary election. Since then my views on some things have changed a bit; I continue to get more moderate as I grow, as is to be expected, I suppose. I've gone from being a big fan of socialism (in its ideal type) in high school to a rather loose type of social liberalism (in the European sense). That is to say that I still support rather more social programs than we see here in the States, but not in every case.
I still identify generally with the Party of European Socialists, which brings together all the social-democratic parties from the member states, but with a strong secondary liberal ("European liberal", that is to say more laissez-faire, not "American liberal") identification. It all depends on context, as I think the Swedish welfare state is a great thing in its context.
In Canada, I've gone from being an NDP sympathizer to more in the Liberal column, and while I liked Gerard Kennedy as a candidate, I had a strong feeling as the convention approached that Dion was going to take it. For the U.S. I hope that Canada continues its environmental emphasis and that actions from up north put more pressure on our government down here.
On the other hand, my views on some things are the same. I still think the German mixed-member proportional system is the best electoral system in most contexts. I still hope that someday American electoral reform will happen and I'm encouraged by events in Canada. And I'm still not a conservative. A few years back I challenged friends to name one issue on which I have conservative leanings. Nobody has succeeded yet, though I certainly can be classified as "moderate" in some areas.
As a commentator, I can only hope my opinions are becoming more coherent and justified. I've had less personal time yet, paradoxically, have blogged more since graduating from UW, probably because I've gone full bore into the news as my form of recreation. My baseball watching has continued to diminish, to my philosophical regret, but practical inaction; and of course, I have plenty to say now about the practical experiences of teaching, over at my other home.
So, there it is. How much longer will I keep it up? No idea. As long as it's personally fulfilling, I'll be here. And that's what it comes down to: as many or as few people as may read my writing, in the end, it's what I want to write about and share.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
