Saturday, December 02, 2006
Chávez coasts to another win
I have not said much about the upcoming elections in Venezuela. Suffice it to say that I would support Rosales and, when he loses, I will be disappointed but not surprised.
Day of reckoning
Everyone's out but the top five (Dryden will be eliminated in the second round as he has chosen not to drop out). Dion crept past Kennedy in the first round (by 2 votes), Ignatieff did not do as well as expected.
Predictions: I am rooting for Kennedy now. However I think that the odds are (1) Rae (2) Dion.
They are counting the second ballot now.
9:49 AM CT Check that. I predict Kennedy goes to Dion and Ignatieff's delegates go to Dion. Dion wins.
I think I heard someone on TV say they thought Kennedy "bombed" the speech. What?? Kennedy's speech was one of the best. Definitely better than Dion and Ignatieff. Unfortunately it is not the sole determinant of what happens.
1:37 PM CT I was at work for a while today and couldn't blog, but I was watching as Kennedy moved over to Dion. Kennedy sounded deflated and disappointed, but made it clear he was supporting Dion as the most in agreement with him and said that the goals were more important than the person. Now it's a toss up--Dryden went to Rae (but "freed" his delegates); Ignatieff was still ahead but not really growing; Dion and Kennedy together pass Rae, if Dion takes all of Kennedy's delegates.
Crazy and exciting...
1:43 PM CT I made it home just in time. This is ridiculously exciting!!! Rae is eliminated. My predictions are coming true. Question: What does Rae do now?? Deal with Dion, or with Ignatieff? I think most of his delegates would rather go to Dion.
1:52 PM CT Rae has released his delegates and will not endorse anyone. Well, Dion finished first, Ignatieff second. Ignatieff grew by only about 5 percent, representing Kennedy's delegates who didn't follow their candidate. Dion is on the move. I think the majority of Rae's delegates fall to Dion, and Dion wins. If that happens, what is the political future of Rae and of Ignatieff?
2:56 PM CT Talk continues. Comments on how Dion and Kennedy have been a team. Hedy Fry is backing Dion.
3:47 PM CT Jean Chretien is speaking. Gives Paul Martin a line by noting that he voted for his father 50 years ago. Notes that Liberals are the party that voted "no" on the war. No shot of Ignatieff's reaction. Continues speaking about Liberal accomplishments and unity.
4:46 PM CT And we're almost here. Ignatieff camp looks dejected, Dion and Kennedy look pretty happy. A lot of talk about the benefits/drawbacks of a convention vs. OMOV. The commentators do make a legit point that the leadership convention is extremely exciting. They talk a lot about how a convention shows young people that the party is fun (okay, but you don't have to have a leadership convention, any convention will do). The point, of course, is that the outcome is best--not to get caught up in process. I wouldn't say I know enough about the history of the whole thing, as it relates to Canada, to weigh in.
5:04 PM CT Dion is the winner 2521-2084. He and Gerard hold their hands up. Ignatieff looked almost like he was going to cry. He now is taking the stage and conceding--it's actually a pretty good concession all things considered. Now Martin is up to introduce Dion. Think this is about all I'm blogging. Until later...
Predictions: I am rooting for Kennedy now. However I think that the odds are (1) Rae (2) Dion.
They are counting the second ballot now.
9:49 AM CT Check that. I predict Kennedy goes to Dion and Ignatieff's delegates go to Dion. Dion wins.
I think I heard someone on TV say they thought Kennedy "bombed" the speech. What?? Kennedy's speech was one of the best. Definitely better than Dion and Ignatieff. Unfortunately it is not the sole determinant of what happens.
1:37 PM CT I was at work for a while today and couldn't blog, but I was watching as Kennedy moved over to Dion. Kennedy sounded deflated and disappointed, but made it clear he was supporting Dion as the most in agreement with him and said that the goals were more important than the person. Now it's a toss up--Dryden went to Rae (but "freed" his delegates); Ignatieff was still ahead but not really growing; Dion and Kennedy together pass Rae, if Dion takes all of Kennedy's delegates.
Crazy and exciting...
1:43 PM CT I made it home just in time. This is ridiculously exciting!!! Rae is eliminated. My predictions are coming true. Question: What does Rae do now?? Deal with Dion, or with Ignatieff? I think most of his delegates would rather go to Dion.
1:52 PM CT Rae has released his delegates and will not endorse anyone. Well, Dion finished first, Ignatieff second. Ignatieff grew by only about 5 percent, representing Kennedy's delegates who didn't follow their candidate. Dion is on the move. I think the majority of Rae's delegates fall to Dion, and Dion wins. If that happens, what is the political future of Rae and of Ignatieff?
2:56 PM CT Talk continues. Comments on how Dion and Kennedy have been a team. Hedy Fry is backing Dion.
3:47 PM CT Jean Chretien is speaking. Gives Paul Martin a line by noting that he voted for his father 50 years ago. Notes that Liberals are the party that voted "no" on the war. No shot of Ignatieff's reaction. Continues speaking about Liberal accomplishments and unity.
4:46 PM CT And we're almost here. Ignatieff camp looks dejected, Dion and Kennedy look pretty happy. A lot of talk about the benefits/drawbacks of a convention vs. OMOV. The commentators do make a legit point that the leadership convention is extremely exciting. They talk a lot about how a convention shows young people that the party is fun (okay, but you don't have to have a leadership convention, any convention will do). The point, of course, is that the outcome is best--not to get caught up in process. I wouldn't say I know enough about the history of the whole thing, as it relates to Canada, to weigh in.
5:04 PM CT Dion is the winner 2521-2084. He and Gerard hold their hands up. Ignatieff looked almost like he was going to cry. He now is taking the stage and conceding--it's actually a pretty good concession all things considered. Now Martin is up to introduce Dion. Think this is about all I'm blogging. Until later...
Friday, December 01, 2006
Selecting Canada's next PM
I'm watching the Liberal convention online...
I have not taken the side of a single candidate during the race, although I have been most impressed by, and lean toward, both Stephane Dion and Gerard Kennedy. Dion's "three-pillar" approach emphasizing the environment and his experience are impressive; Kennedy's freshness, drive and enthusiasm, and his commitment to values, recommend him.
I have not seen any of the candidates give a speech before. I found Dion not particularly interesting, but his English was fine, something that has been mentioned as a weakness. He took too long and got sent off stage by the music. Kennedy's French has been, conversely, mentioned as his weakness. Not speaking French, I cannot evaluate, though he sounded all right to me. What I can say is that Kennedy really, really impressed me. His speech was risky--it placed blame on the party for its defeat and called on the party to find its values--but I found it both authentic and passionate, as well as true.
Of course, Ignatieff and Rae are still the front-runners, but anything can happen--it's a convention, after all.
More to come.
7:42 CT Rae gave a speech without notes about the Canada he wants. It was okay and the broadcasters liked it but it was not as energetic as Kennedy's and, of course, had fewer specifics and a few platitudes. Ignatieff's up and his pre-speech video is currently running. I've been trying to figure out what irritates me about Ignatieff, and I think it's just his conceitedness, which seems to permeate the campaign, and everything it produces as well... a little bit too slick and media-driven.
7:44 CT Ignatieff's brother Andrew (the original "Iggy"), in the video, noted that "it's not arrogance, it's normal human shyness." That's the word I was looking for--arrogance.
8:03 CT Ignatieff: "We are the party that will take us there." Right...I suppose he was talking about all of Canada, not the Liberals. :) A good speech, especially towards the end. Emphasis on Canada's place in the world, Canada will have the best, can have the best, so on. I'm surprised the cameras weren't on Volpe the whole time--they've been spying on him nonstop waiting for him to make the move over to Rae. Now they're trying to rope Brison into admitting that he's going to Ignatieff but he won't bite (even when they ask the same question five times, imagine that!).
I still don't like Ignatieff. His smug smile alone annoys me...
There we go, the announcer mentioned Volpe again. Commentators don't like Ignatieff as much as Rae or Kennedy. I still say Kennedy was the best.
I have not taken the side of a single candidate during the race, although I have been most impressed by, and lean toward, both Stephane Dion and Gerard Kennedy. Dion's "three-pillar" approach emphasizing the environment and his experience are impressive; Kennedy's freshness, drive and enthusiasm, and his commitment to values, recommend him.
I have not seen any of the candidates give a speech before. I found Dion not particularly interesting, but his English was fine, something that has been mentioned as a weakness. He took too long and got sent off stage by the music. Kennedy's French has been, conversely, mentioned as his weakness. Not speaking French, I cannot evaluate, though he sounded all right to me. What I can say is that Kennedy really, really impressed me. His speech was risky--it placed blame on the party for its defeat and called on the party to find its values--but I found it both authentic and passionate, as well as true.
Of course, Ignatieff and Rae are still the front-runners, but anything can happen--it's a convention, after all.
More to come.
7:42 CT Rae gave a speech without notes about the Canada he wants. It was okay and the broadcasters liked it but it was not as energetic as Kennedy's and, of course, had fewer specifics and a few platitudes. Ignatieff's up and his pre-speech video is currently running. I've been trying to figure out what irritates me about Ignatieff, and I think it's just his conceitedness, which seems to permeate the campaign, and everything it produces as well... a little bit too slick and media-driven.
7:44 CT Ignatieff's brother Andrew (the original "Iggy"), in the video, noted that "it's not arrogance, it's normal human shyness." That's the word I was looking for--arrogance.
8:03 CT Ignatieff: "We are the party that will take us there." Right...I suppose he was talking about all of Canada, not the Liberals. :) A good speech, especially towards the end. Emphasis on Canada's place in the world, Canada will have the best, can have the best, so on. I'm surprised the cameras weren't on Volpe the whole time--they've been spying on him nonstop waiting for him to make the move over to Rae. Now they're trying to rope Brison into admitting that he's going to Ignatieff but he won't bite (even when they ask the same question five times, imagine that!).
I still don't like Ignatieff. His smug smile alone annoys me...
There we go, the announcer mentioned Volpe again. Commentators don't like Ignatieff as much as Rae or Kennedy. I still say Kennedy was the best.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Who needs a government?
Looks like things are a bit more complicated in the Netherlands than I thought. First, CDA + VVD + PvdV (Wilders) doesn't add up to a majority. Not to mention, nobody really wants to work with Wilders, who is rather controversial due to comments on Islam.
Okay, quickly apply the cordon sanitaire, and go... where? Christian Democrats and Labor (CDA + PvdA), ignoring the fact that they hate each other, still don't have a majority. The rumors have had a small Christian party (economic left/social right), CU, joining the government. Except that PvdA has demanded that the big gainers, SP, be involved in any discussion.
One of the outgoing Liberal (VVD) ministers commented that "the only winners are the anarchists" due to the inconclusive nature of this election. But it seems to be becoming a pattern, with Germany, Austria and the Czechs all voting inconclusively. Why? And will it lead to anything other than strengthening extremists, especially on the right?
Guy at A Fistful of Euros has a good commentary.
Okay, quickly apply the cordon sanitaire, and go... where? Christian Democrats and Labor (CDA + PvdA), ignoring the fact that they hate each other, still don't have a majority. The rumors have had a small Christian party (economic left/social right), CU, joining the government. Except that PvdA has demanded that the big gainers, SP, be involved in any discussion.
One of the outgoing Liberal (VVD) ministers commented that "the only winners are the anarchists" due to the inconclusive nature of this election. But it seems to be becoming a pattern, with Germany, Austria and the Czechs all voting inconclusively. Why? And will it lead to anything other than strengthening extremists, especially on the right?
Guy at A Fistful of Euros has a good commentary.
To the extreme...
Looks like the Rwandan government is going what we call "overboard"...
One can surmise that Kagame would have liked to do this for a long time and now he has a pretext to do so. He has never had good relations with France, as the RPF saw France as backing the genocidaire government. He and his ministers are probably legitimately offended (to be mild) at the accusations--if they're not true, they're essentially falsely blaming Kagame/RPF for allowing the genocide to begin (and if they are true then it's certainly an unpleasant reminder of a failed strategy, nonetheless). There is also the colonialist/colonized angle to this (who are they to judge us?). That has some merit.
Even so, to block all state institutions from operating, including the French school and RFI, is quite extreme and certainly shows the poor state of relations that Kagame and the French have had for years. As, of course, does the warrant that sparked off the whole situation.
One can surmise that Kagame would have liked to do this for a long time and now he has a pretext to do so. He has never had good relations with France, as the RPF saw France as backing the genocidaire government. He and his ministers are probably legitimately offended (to be mild) at the accusations--if they're not true, they're essentially falsely blaming Kagame/RPF for allowing the genocide to begin (and if they are true then it's certainly an unpleasant reminder of a failed strategy, nonetheless). There is also the colonialist/colonized angle to this (who are they to judge us?). That has some merit.
Even so, to block all state institutions from operating, including the French school and RFI, is quite extreme and certainly shows the poor state of relations that Kagame and the French have had for years. As, of course, does the warrant that sparked off the whole situation.
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