Jean Charest's Liberal government (no relation to Stéphane Dion's federal Liberals) in Québec goes to the polls tomorrow to seek a renewed mandate. Polls make it a very close race between the usual second party, the separatist Parti Québécois, and the conservative Action démocratique du Québec, a third party for years, which has surged to within striking distance of the top two.
DemocraticSPACE projects a minority Liberal government, with the numbers being:
Liberals, 35.7%, 55 seats (of 125)
PQ, 29.6%, 47 seats
ADQ, 25.9%, 23 seats
ADQ emerges far weaker because its support is spread throughout the province. The PLQ is always somewhat disadvantaged (relative to its percentage of the vote) by winning supermajorities in anglophone West Montreal. Therefore, percentages don't generally translate neatly into seat totals.
Whatever the total, there are major shifts in the Québec political landscape underway, and this election will not be the end of the story.