Day of reckoning

Everyone's out but the top five (Dryden will be eliminated in the second round as he has chosen not to drop out). Dion crept past Kennedy in the first round (by 2 votes), Ignatieff did not do as well as expected.

Predictions: I am rooting for Kennedy now. However I think that the odds are (1) Rae (2) Dion.

They are counting the second ballot now.

9:49 AM CT Check that. I predict Kennedy goes to Dion and Ignatieff's delegates go to Dion. Dion wins.

I think I heard someone on TV say they thought Kennedy "bombed" the speech. What?? Kennedy's speech was one of the best. Definitely better than Dion and Ignatieff. Unfortunately it is not the sole determinant of what happens.

1:37 PM CT I was at work for a while today and couldn't blog, but I was watching as Kennedy moved over to Dion. Kennedy sounded deflated and disappointed, but made it clear he was supporting Dion as the most in agreement with him and said that the goals were more important than the person. Now it's a toss up--Dryden went to Rae (but "freed" his delegates); Ignatieff was still ahead but not really growing; Dion and Kennedy together pass Rae, if Dion takes all of Kennedy's delegates.

Crazy and exciting...

1:43 PM CT I made it home just in time. This is ridiculously exciting!!! Rae is eliminated. My predictions are coming true. Question: What does Rae do now?? Deal with Dion, or with Ignatieff? I think most of his delegates would rather go to Dion.

1:52 PM CT Rae has released his delegates and will not endorse anyone. Well, Dion finished first, Ignatieff second. Ignatieff grew by only about 5 percent, representing Kennedy's delegates who didn't follow their candidate. Dion is on the move. I think the majority of Rae's delegates fall to Dion, and Dion wins. If that happens, what is the political future of Rae and of Ignatieff?

2:56 PM CT Talk continues. Comments on how Dion and Kennedy have been a team. Hedy Fry is backing Dion.

3:47 PM CT Jean Chretien is speaking. Gives Paul Martin a line by noting that he voted for his father 50 years ago. Notes that Liberals are the party that voted "no" on the war. No shot of Ignatieff's reaction. Continues speaking about Liberal accomplishments and unity.

4:46 PM CT And we're almost here. Ignatieff camp looks dejected, Dion and Kennedy look pretty happy. A lot of talk about the benefits/drawbacks of a convention vs. OMOV. The commentators do make a legit point that the leadership convention is extremely exciting. They talk a lot about how a convention shows young people that the party is fun (okay, but you don't have to have a leadership convention, any convention will do). The point, of course, is that the outcome is best--not to get caught up in process. I wouldn't say I know enough about the history of the whole thing, as it relates to Canada, to weigh in.

5:04 PM CT Dion is the winner 2521-2084. He and Gerard hold their hands up. Ignatieff looked almost like he was going to cry. He now is taking the stage and conceding--it's actually a pretty good concession all things considered. Now Martin is up to introduce Dion. Think this is about all I'm blogging. Until later...