Sunday, August 14, 2005

Recent developments

Well, what's gone on in the world lately? China abandoned the dollar peg a while ago and now has a "basket." It's a start. Niger finally got a little bit of attention. Guinea-Bissau had a presidential election and Nino Vieira will be president again which means that the country isn't going to emerge from its problems anytime soon.

Of course, everyone is paying attention to the disengagement right now; Bibi's quit and Arik is determined (even though Netanyahu's popularity is way above Sharon's in the Likud, of course, Bibi's always been an opportunist and will continue to be). But the Right isn't going to stop this from going through, which means the obvious question is how Hamas and Fatah will be able to work together in Gaza.

Palestinian legislative elections won't occur until January 2006 (the new date set by Abbas) so until then there will have to be some sort of collaboration in Gaza. But what sort of collaboration? Hamas has to know that it will only benefit the Palestinian people to have a smooth ride and feel a benefit from the disengagement. I can't see any motivation for Hamas to continue to create trouble against Israel in a pretty much unoccupied (obviously not "free") Gaza. The problem is the possible benefits Hamas could gain against Fatah knowing that Abbas and the Fatah-dominated PA don't want to see trouble in Gaza.

Hamas will have to weigh this desire to achieve political gains in Gaza against the public opinion of Gazans... but the ball would seem to be in their court.

On another note, I've heard a lot of ludicrous things (especially reading about Palestine/Israel), but check this out:

Finally, why does Mbeki have to bail out Mugabe? South Africa has enough problems without loaning money to a corrupt dictator to help him continue his reign of repression. Yet another reason why I stopped supporting the ANC... and why the Democratic Alliance should win (though it won't) in 2009.

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