Education in Finland

The Economist's correspondent took a trip to Sweden and Finland to look at their education systems--the latter country's education system is the world's highest-ranked. The correspondent leaves, noting that he approves more, in principle, of Sweden's system--which gives parents more rights vis-a-vis the state, and has competition between different schools and methods (despite not allowing grades)--yet it's Finland's system that gets the best results.

And why does Finland's system get such great outcomes? According to him, it's these three things:

1. Teaching is a highly respected profession. Only 10% of those who want to be teachers are accepted.
2. Teacher training lasts five years and ongoing teacher training is considerable.
3. Students respect the teachers, pay attention and work hard. ("When I asked Finns whether there were some families who despised education and resented schools, they seemed puzzled by the question.")

On the one hand, it's simple: make teaching a profession that will draw the brightest and hardest-working, train teachers well and retain them, and have orderly and respectful schools that dedicate students to hard work. On the other hand, it's pretty difficult... after all, we just have to entirely change societal priorities and attitudes. But I think 2 definitely leads to 1 (lots of training = more people motivated to pursue the profession and more specialized = better incentives for retention), and 1 and 2 definitely lead to 3 (good teachers inspire respect from their students and know how to get results from them), though they certainly aren't the only causal factors.

The correspondent notes that lots of Finnish students are in "special education", especially for behavioral factors. I think my class last year would have achieved 25% more without one or two particular students who, in turn, merited more specialized attention to get on track as well.

On a favorite Republican talking point, it's hard to get rid of bad teachers in Finland: "In Kulosaari, the head teacher, Anneli Rautiainen, said alcoholic teachers in Finland are moved between classes and sometimes even between schools, so that they don't do too much damage to any one child's education." Perhaps firing flexibility isn't the #1 factor. After all, you can get rid of bad teachers, but you've gotta have someone to replace them...

Montenegro: President Vujanovic wins reelection

From early returns in Montenegro, it appears that President Filip Vujanović has handily won reelection, taking a majority of votes cast (around 52%). Vujanović is a part of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists, the party of PM Milo Đukanović (the Milosević ally-turned-enemy also known for allegedly smuggling into Italy and backing NATO during the Kosovo crisis for, perhaps, his own opportunistic ends; Đukanović quit in 2006, then decided he couldn't stay just in private business and returned to office in February).

At any rate, this is a pretty resounding mandate for the ruling coalition, which has been in control since the early '90s. A quickly growing economy--especially since leaving the union with Serbia--may have much to do with that. The pro-Serb opposition candidate appears to have received just over 20 percent, and a liberal candidate around 17 percent. The president is a typical European ceremonial president, so the significance of this is essentially as a voter endorsement for Đukanović's resumption of power and the ruling DPS (whose continued stranglehold over Montenegrin government is, however, a little worrying).

One interesting/misleading quote from the AP article is:

"Ethnic Serbs, who make up about 30 percent of the population, opposed the split."

Note that the difference between "ethnic Serbs" and "ethnic Montenegrins" is political; they speak the same language (be it "Serbian" or "Montenegrin") and are the same in everything except for their ethnic self-definition. Compare to the "Moldovan" and "Romanian" languages, or perhaps "Valencian" and "Catalan." Therefore, the definition is somewhat tautological; "ethnic Serbs" by definition consider Montenegro and Serbia one country.

See also election article at Wikipedia.

Thoughts on the Spanish election

The Spanish government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero won reelection on Sunday, gaining five seats in the process. However, the results were mixed for both the Socialists and the opposition People's Party.

Almost all the Socialist gains came from cannibalizing smaller leftist partner parties. Here is a list of PSOE gains:

• Almería (the constituency gained a seat which went to PSOE)
• Barcelona, 2 (gained from the Esquerra and Iniciativa per Catalunya-Verds, two leftist parties)
• Girona (gained from the Esquerra)
• Guipúzcoa (gained from the Basque social democrats, Eusko Alkartasuna)
• Las Palmas (gained from the Canarian regionalists)
• Ourense (gained from the PP)
• Tarragona (gained from the Esquerra)
• Toledo (constituency gained a seat which went to PSOE)
• Vizcaya (gained from the Basque Nationalist Party, EAJ-PNV)
• Zaragoza (gained from the Aragonese leftists, Chunta Aragonesista)

The PSOE made only one pickup directly from the PP, in the Galician province of Ourense, but lost several seats to the PP, resulting in only a 5-seat gain overall. The only seats which flipped to the PSOE from non-leftist parties were that seat, plus the seat in Vizcaya lost by the Basque nationalists. Most voters showed identical voting patterns to previous years; in Andalucía and Castilla-La Mancha, swing voters trended towards the PP, and the populares picked up 5 points in Madrid. Here is, by contrast, a list of PP gains:

• Alicante (constituency gained a seat which went to PP)
• Almería (gained from PSOE)
• Cádiz (gained from PSOE)
• Ciudad Real (gained from PSOE)
• Lleida (gained from Esquerra)
• Madrid (gained from PSOE/far-left Izquierda Unida)
• Málaga (gained from PSOE)
• Murcia (constituency gained a seat which went to PP)
• Valencia (gained from leftist Entesa)

Three of the PP's losses were in constituencies which lost seats due to population shifts, plus the Ourense loss. Thus, overall the PP lost one seat to the left in population shifts and one more directly, while taking seven seats directly from leftist parties. Advantage, PP, and the overall composition of the legislature shifts rightward. It will be somewhat more difficult for the PSOE to push through legislation this time around without the help of the Catalan conservatives; this may not be a consolation for Mariano Rajoy, but it's certainly a difference.

Other trends from this election:

1. The United Left is almost gone. The country's "third force," the United Left coalition, consisting mainly of the formerly-powerful Communist Party of Spain, has almost vanished from the scene. In the last election, the United Left just missed the 5% needed to form an official parliamentary group and won only 5 seats; that was their worst result ever. This time around, they did far worse, taking only 3.8% and winning just one seat each in Madrid and Barcelona. Their share of the vote remained in third nationwide, but as it is dispersed across provinces in a small-constituency proportional system, they have no hope of being elected in most areas, and they probably won't rebound. They are far from their heyday of being elected in places like Asturias and Córdoba.
   
2. The big parties gained. Together, the PSOE and PP went from 312 to 322 seats, leaving only 28 seats (less than 10%) for other parties; the two big parties took 83.8% of the vote. Losses were felt most strongly by the Catalan Left (Esquerra), which lost 5 of its 8 seats (4 of those losses were to the Socialists). However, the Basque nationalists lost a seat, the Canarian regionalists lost a seat, and the Basque social democrats and the Aragonese regionalists lost their only seats. This is a qualified victory for those who don't support excessive regionalization (though the Socialists gained some of their popularity in Catalonia through their pro-regional policies, and some of the changes in the Basque country might be due to a onetime "sympathy vote" after the assassination of a former Basque Socialist councillor).
   
3. Most provinces were stable. Along with the gains by big parties... in 31 of 52 constituencies, there was no change at all in the seat allocations. Another six constituencies saw change just because they gained or lost a seat due to population. This leaves only 15 constituencies where a seat actually changed hands. Only in the large cities of Madrid and Barcelona did more than one seat change hands. That is to say that winning a seat on the list of the PP or PSOE is essentially a guarantee to election, since the PP and PSOE are essentially "guaranteed" their seats. What will be interesting to see in following years is if the vote "locks in" with few changes or if the PP and PSOE are able to enlarge their platforms to court more centrist voters. There have been steps in that direction from both, but neither has moved enough ideologically to strongly appeal to large groups from the other side (in particular, the PP has had trouble with this). If the former occurs and the vote stabilizes, will Spain see a loss in interest at the polls? (And will Spain see a loss in interest anyway, especially in the smaller constituencies which seem to have no hope of changing a seat in one direction or the other? In the context of three- or four-seat constituencies, the vote swings required to move a seat are pretty big!)
   

One more note: there are several three-seat constituencies (mostly in Castile-Leon) which are regularly won by the PP, resulting in a 2-1 split (see Palencia, Zamora, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Avila, Segovia). Soria was formerly one of these, but lost its third seat and dropped to the minimum two seats, the first province to do so; the seats therefore split 1-1 in Soria this time around. If, eventually (we're talking over 10 years or more), the other three-seat constituencies drop to two seats, that will be a five-seat drop to the PP without any votes changing hands. (Five seats, not six, because the next seat to turn would probably be Teruel in Aragon, which is a regular PSOE 2-1 win).

To summarize, then: trends are favorable for the two big parties, and in particular for the PP, but for the PP to capitalize, it must continue to abandon its rigidity and continue to make gains in former PSOE strongholds such as Andalucía. And if Spanish democracy is not to become rigid and stagnate, the parties must continue to broaden their platforms and appeal to large groups of centrist voters, or else make systemic changes to create more "swing seats."

Results at the Spanish Ministry of Interior.

Spain: Zapatero gets another term

It appears, from incomplete returns, that the two big parties have made gains in Spain's general elections. With about 75% counted, the Socialists (PSOE) are in line to win 168 seats, eight short of an outright majority, and if numbers hold up, the PSOE can team up with the Catalan Left and the United Left to pass legislation. The Senate appears also that it will be closer. See the Spanish Ministry of Interior for returns; more later.

The Economist agrees with me! Kind of

No less an authority than The Economist dislikes Kosovo's flag, too! (see below for image). They have a somewhat specific point for their objection, though: they don't like having "a precise outline of a map," since that makes it hard to reproduce. I suppose the one thing that makes Kosovo's flag distinctively sterile--a lack of symbolism--is the one thing that was necessary, but they could have done better even so.

Cyprus: Republic voters call for more dialogue?

In the Cypriot presidential elections this weekend, current President Tassos Papadopoulos has been eliminated for a three-horse race. Papadopoulos, who has been rather intransigent on reunification talks and torpedoed the Annan Plan, was regarded as the most hard-line of the three candidates running. This is a little surprising insofar as Papadopoulos had shown a modest lead in all the opinion polls. However, the final results were:

Ioannis Casoulides (Democratic Rally), 33.5%
Demetris Christophias (AKEL), 33.3%
Tassos Papadopoulos (Democratic Party), 31.8%

Casoulides is the candidate of the conservative Democratic Rally of former president Glafcos Clerides, who endorsed the Annan Plan for reunification. He is generally seen as the most capable of reaching a negotiated solution. The second round will be held in one week, on February 24.

It's done.

Not "done" as in the sense of "resolved," but "done" as in the sense of "finally occurred," that is. Kosovo declared independence today. Luckily, it appears that the largest war this has set off is the edit war on Wikipedia's Kosovo page, the lead of which has changed approximately 532 times today.

There's still a lot more to resolve--for example, Serbia (and Russia) mildly disagrees with the whole independence thing--but in the spirit of celebration, the Kosovan government started things off by adopting the world's ugliest flag (see below, image from Wikipedia). They managed not only to copy the Bosnian flag, but to make it much, much worse. The Albanians will no doubt continue using the Albanian flag (perhaps the real intention behind adopting a horrible flag, anyway).



Many countries, including some EU countries, won't recognize Kosovo's independence, starting of course with Serbia and opportunistic big-power ally Russia--this means that Kosovo can't join the UN for the foreseeable future due to Russia's Council veto. But EU members who won't recognize independence, generally for self-interested reasons, including Greece and Cyprus (due to the Northern Cyprus separatist issue), Bulgaria (Russian relations, perhaps?), Romania (Russian relations, too, but also maybe solidarity with Moldova over Transnistria?), and Spain (which has its own problems with ethnic separatism).

On the other hand, France (no more Corsica problem), Germany, Britain and Belgium (following its national motto of "ever closer union more secession"), along with the US, are expected to recognize Kosovo's independence in the coming days (of course, Albania will too). On the ground, nothing really will be changing except for the arrival of the UN mission, and the northern part of Kosovo remains under de facto Serb control. However, we can look forward to the country adopting a (horrible?) national anthem, too, as well as of course a constitution, which should be coming in the next few months.

Tadić reelected in Serbia

Pro-European candidate Boris Tadić won reelection by a slim margin in the runoff over nationalist Tomislav Nikolić today; the margin was 51.6 percent to 47.7 percent. (See my previous post on the results of the first round). Turnout was reportedly again extremely high, even higher than the first round at 66 percent, as Serbs knew the stakes today. I guess we can probably expect to see Kosovo declare independence shortly, then...

Russian presidential election: not quite as close

Dmitry Medvedev is probably not quite so tense as Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton these days. Results from a recent poll (January 18-21) show Putin's chosen heir with 82%, though to be fair, that is just a 73% margin over his closest rival, Gennady Zyuganov.

Just to make sure that the margin doesn't close, though, the electoral commission has disqualified the only man close to being regarded as an "opposition candidate," ex-PM Mikhail Kasyanov, who had a solid 1% in the poll (but it's a committed 1%). Also, undoubtedly, Medvedev can count on 99% turnout and 99% of the votes from Chechnya and Ingushetia, just like in the parliamentary elections. The Chechens love Vladimir Putin!

Electoral reform in Italy

Romano Prodi's government in Italy has fallen. However, Italy can't really go to elections yet, because the electoral system is defective. The current ridiculous system was introduced by Silvio Berlusconi's outgoing rightist government in a blatant bid to win the next elections. It allowed Prodi's Union coalition to sweep into office with a big majority in the House of Deputies, yet have only a two-vote margin in the Senate (whose confidence must be retained). This meant small parties could still play the blackmailer role, and one of them, UDEUR, a small Christian-democratic party most popular in the Naples area, left the coalition due to a corruption probe into the justice minister's wife.

It appears that Italy will have some sort of unity or technocratic government whose task is to bring the country to elections. All sorts of solutions have been mooted for the problem of the disproportionate power held by smaller parties in the large coalitions (especially on the left), even as far as bringing in first-past-the-post. (In Israel, which has the same problem, the same solutions have been mooted).

The Italian Constitutional Court has just okayed a referendum to go forward. From the Reuters link it seems that voters would vote "yes" or "no" to several different possibilities to be incorporated into a law. Of course, if that's the case, this sort of referendum is defective insofar as some of the possibilities approved might well be contradictory. But it may well result in something better than the political parties have managed to agree on.

If the big parties can put aside their rivalries, the best solution may well be the simplest--just forget about everything else, and impose a 4 or 5% threshold, distributing seats in the regions. Ban joint electoral lists or coalitions if it's necessary. MMP doesn't seem like a great idea--in prior years it was manipulated by the larger parties, who ran duplicate "front" parties in the constituencies to increase their parliamentary overhang (as is legal, but distasteful; it doesn't happen in Germany, New Zealand or Scotland, other places where MMP is used).

A threshold of 5% would likely allow in the center-left Democratic Party, the Communist Refoundation, the centrist/Christian-democratic Union of Christian and Center Democrats, the conservative Forza Italia, and the rightist National Alliance. Also possibly clearing the bar would be the socialist Democratic Left and the regionalist Northern League. A reasonable diversity of opinion, all in all, without allowing excessive proportionality to continue to paralyze government.

The Belgian version of "intercultural"

An amusing (?) note from the Economist's EU blogger:

2008 is the European Year of Intercultural Dialogue. As such, the website highlights national projects done in each of the EU member states. There are 27 member states, and 29 projects. Why 29 projects? It seems that 26 member states have one project each, and Belgium submitted three--one intercultural project from the Flemings, one intercultural project from the Walloons, and one intercultural project from the tiny German-speaking community of Belgium. That's the true meaning of multiculturalism.

Guess we shouldn't read too much into it. After all, six months after their elections, they did finally manage to form a provisional government...

Update: I changed the title of the post, just because its dripping sarcasm is hard to pick up through a computer.

Serbia: second round, as expected, on high turnout

Radical Party candidate Tomislav Nikolić and current president/Democratic Party candidate Boris Tadić have finished 1-2 in the Serbian presidential election first round, as was widely expected. The greater surprise here was turnout, which was around 60 percent, well up from the last presidential poll in 2004 and roughly equivalent to turnout in last year's parliamentary poll.

Compared to the previous election, both leading candidates took higher shares of the vote (Nikolić at 39 percent and Tadić at 35 percent). A key question will be where supporters of the third-place candidate, Velimir Ilić of New Serbia (an ally of PM Vojislav Koštunica) decide to put their second-round votes.

If one assumes that Tadić takes most of the votes of Cedomir Jovanović (a liberal) and Ištvan Pastor (the Hungarian minority candidate) this gives him 43.2 percent; Nikolić gets the support of Milutin Mrkonijć (from Milosević's Socialists) for 45.4 percent. It therefore seems that much will turn on those who voted for Ilić, who took 7.6 percent in the first round. Note that in 2004, turnout for the second round was almost identical as for the first round.

RFE/RL has coverage. The numbers I have seen come from Wikipedia, and I am not sure of the original source.

The day's other big election

While on Saturday, January 19, many people were paying attention to the caucuses in Nevada and the GOP primary in South Carolina, there was of course another earth-shattering election taking place. I refer, of course, to the general election in the Danish dependency of the Faroe Islands.

Interestingly, (and of more interest than this year's outcome), the Faroe Islands appear to have reached an equilibrium between four parties in their proportional-representation system, despite their minuscule size. Note that the Faroes have not just traditional left-right divisions, but also cleavages between pro-independence forces and pro-union (with Denmark) forces. The same four parties have been the largest in parliament since 1950 in this small island group of under 50,000 people (see Wikipedia for background).

No party, since that same year of 1950, has taken more than 27.5 percent of the vote; no party has ever held an absolute majority in parliament; and no party has even held more than 10 seats in parliament (26 to 33 seats total) since the 1946-47 period. From 1958 through 1980, the Social Democrats were marginally larger than the other parties (enjoying a 1- or 2-seat advantage after each election compared to their largest competitor), but this advantage no longer exists.

For this year's election, the electoral system was changed slightly, to eliminate regional constituencies which had resulted in slight disproportionalities. The system used this year allocates seats based on open lists for the entire territory.

Perhaps the biggest story in this year's uneventful election was the gain of almost 6 percent of the vote, and 2 seats, combined for the other two small parties in parliament. Other than that, the Social Democrats lost one seat, and all other parties remained even in terms of seats: Republic 8; Union Party 7; People's Party 7; Social Democrats 6; smaller parties 5. Summary in English is available at Parties and Elections.

Tadić looking for a second term in Serbia

Serbia goes to the polls tomorrow to elect a president. Expect current president Boris Tadić and Radical Party leader Tomislav Nikolić to advance to the second round. Interestingly, it looks like ultranationalist Nikolić is running a slick campaign (reportedly helped by a Western PR firm) while the pro-EU Tadić is showing the Serbian flag whenever he can. A good sign, at least, that the two are trying to appeal to crossover voters. PM Vojislav Kostunica is backing a small-party candidate to gain more leverage in the second round (he probably will back Tadić in the end).

The question is whether Serbia has an alternative to Europe (answer: no, unless it becomes a Russian puppet state). Russia has reportedly been trying to pressure the Serbs, but they only want a relationship on their terms (read: Russian control over gas, Russian economic/political ties, in return for Russian support on Kosovo).

Picking Nikolić would be a throwback to the old days. If Tadić can win over most of the Serbs who want continued economic growth (the #1 issue despite all the talk about Kosovo), he should squeak by in the runoff which is almost certain to come.

See the Economist or RFE/RL (and an analysis from RFE). Wikipedia entry here.

New Spanish anthem lyrics rejected...again

Yet again, Spaniards are unable to agree on an anthem. This time the idea was propelled by Spain's Olympic Committee, with the hope of having lyrics for Spain's athletes to sing in time for the next Olympics. Lyrics by a self-described unemployed "loser" from La Mancha were chosen by the panel of experts. Paulino Cubero said that "I wrote the anthem for the fatherland of the average people, of those that take the metro to go to work."

Apparently, the objections mainly came from the left, and wisely, Zapatero doesn't seem to have said much at all. Rajoy apparently didn't comment, while the leader of the small United Left, Gaspar Llamazares, was quite critical. However, there's been enough objections that the Committee has shelved the proposal, which was supposed to be debuted by Placido Domingo.

Honestly, if they can't agree on these lyrics, which ones will they agree on?

¡Viva España!

Cantemos todos juntos

con distinta voz

y un solo corazón

¡Viva España!

desde los verdes valles

al inmenso mar,

un himno de hermandad

Ama a la patria

pues sabe abrazar,

bajo su cielo azul,

pueblos en libertad

Gloria a los hijos

que a la Historia dan

justicia y grandeza

democracia y paz.

Voting in Poland

Poland has voted today, two years ahead of schedule, after corruption scandals brought down the coalition between conservative/nationalist Law and Justice (PiS), left-populist/xenophobic Samoobrona and the right-Catholic/xenophobic League of Polish Families. The Kaczynski government has been notable for its lack of foreign-policy acumen, and its perhaps overzealous prosecution of the "removal of ex-communist influence" from government bodies, as well as the corruption issues which have generally involved Samoobrona.

Recent polls showed the more classical-liberal Civic Platform (PO) of opposition leader Donald Tusk leading PiS by a couple of percentage points. Either way, a coalition would be necessary, with the most likely partner for PO being Left and Democrats (LiD), a grouping of the former ruling Democratic Left Alliance as well as splinter parties from that party, the Social Democratic Party and the Democratic Party, and another center-left party, the Union of Labor. LiD lags in the polls and will take under 20 percent in any event, but shares with PO the trait that they are pragmatic and not insane ideologues. Hence the two groups seem the most natural partners.

So far, turnout through 16.30h is far ahead of the 2005 turnout--nationwide, 38% compared with 27% two years ago. The Kaczynski government (yes/no) is a clear wedge issue. Whereas in 2005 abstention was 60%, it appears that more than 50% will probably turn out this time.

Results as they come.

Ukraine results coming in

Results from the Ukrainian parliamentary election are coming in. This is Ukraine's third election in three years as the country continues to try to resolve the East-West tension (with the more Orthodox, Russian-speaking east supporting current PM Viktor Yanukovich and the Catholic, Ukrainian-speaking west supporting President Yushchenko).

Ukraine is rather unique in that it has a 450-seat parliament which is allocated entirely based on proportional representation in one nationwide constituency, with a 3% threshold. Moreover, the lists are closed. This system is tailor-made for abuse, as there's an obvious ability to get big businessmen ("oligarchs") and questionable characters in automatically by putting them high on the list. (Of course, this was happening well before Ukraine made the switch to this electoral system, anyway.)

At any rate, there's little reason to expect a large swing one way or the other. Because most voters are choosing a party on the basis of their religious/cultural leanings, they vote the same way each time. I'd wager that the number of swing voters is exceptionally low. There have been stories about how both sides are getting American advisors to make their policies more media-friendly, but I'm not sure who exactly needs to be convinced one way or the other.

The BBC is currently reporting that exit polls show 45 percent for Yuliya Tymoshenko's bloc plus Yushchenko's "Our Ukraine" party, next to 35.5 percent for Yanukovich's Party of Regions. This may have been influenced by what looks like, at first glance, slightly higher turnout in some "orange" regions. However, we'll have to wait to see what the full regional breakdown looks like.

Russian presidential term limits

Article 81.3 of the Russian constitution states: "No one person shall hold the office of President of the Russian Federation for more than two terms in succession."

So if Putin steps down (surprise!) and Zubkov takes over before the elections, Putin could run again, right? Just another theory.

Another fun quote: "Acting Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov said Wednesday he has no doubts parliament will approve the head of the country's financial regulator as the new premier. He also said he was sure the new government will continue the course led by the dismissed government."

Well, of course.

AKP carries the day!

With results coming in from most constituencies, it's clear that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is going to take the Turkish election. Three parties--the AKP, the "secularist" CHP and the nationalist MHP--will win seats in the parliament, along with Kurdish independents (really members of DTP running as independents) in the southeast.

Really, who would have thought that a hard-line, uncompromising strategy from Turkey's ruling generals would fail to carry the day? Seriously, it looks like most Turks have really cast their lot with AKP not so much for solidarity with their ideological goals--whatever those are--but to show the generals that their peculiar "secularism" no longer holds any weight in Turkey and that they disagree with discrimination against Islamist candidates.

For once, BBC has a decent map of the results, here. Currently with about 60 percent of ballot boxes reporting, we have:
AKP 48%
CHP 20%
MHP 14%
independents 6% (not all of which, of course, is for independent candidates who will be elected)

Few surprises in Spain's autonomic elections

Spain's elections in the Autonomous Communities today produced very little in the way of drama or surprise; indeed, the results were pretty much the same as in 2003. The opposition Partido Popular (PP) did seem to make more gains, relative to the ruling Socialist Party (PSOE), taking a greater percentage in Madrid.

It appears that the only government which may change hands is that in Navarra, where a potential Socialist-Nafarroa Bai-Navarra United Left coalition has won more seats than the local conservative parties. (Nafarroa Bai--"Navarra Yes"--is a combination of the Basque nationalist parties EAJ-PNV, EA and Aralar). However, the ability of these parties to come to agreement is far from certain.

Note that the most volatile Communities, the Basque Country and Catalonia, did not hold elections; neither did Galicia or Andalucia.

Meanwhile, the opposition Partido Popular took the most votes in the municipal elections in all of Spain, with a margin of about 157,000 votes (0.7%). This is a slightly greater margin than the PSOE's victory in the same in 2003, and gives the PP some confidence, as since 1983 the winner of the municipal elections has won the following general election.