Northern Cyprus elections favor hardliners

Elections in Northern Cyprus have given the "hardline" National Unity Party (UBP) of former prime minister Derviş Eroğlu 44 percent of the vote, making it appear that Eroğlu will form the next government (see BBC for a summary). The Republican Turkish Party (CTP) of president Mehmet Ali Talat took only 29 percent; this figures to make peace talks somewhat more difficult as the UBP favors a loose confederation-type system of two essentially independent states, while the CTP was supportive of the Annan Plan which was more federal in nature.

In comparing Cyprus to another nearby conflict in Israel/Palestine it might seem incongruous that Cyprus' "hardliners" are in favor of a two-state solution while in I/P it's the other way around, but when you view it as a continuum from "one state for two peoples" to "two states for two peoples" to "one state for one people, who cares about the rest" what becomes clear is that the Cypriot situation simply hasn't become as hardline as that in I/P. This makes sense when you consider that the situation on the ground is much more balanced (in part since neither side gets billions of dollars from the US, and in part due to geopolitical factors) and there are some refugees but no occupation. Nobody can realistically hope of expelling the other or somehow denying them political rights, nobody will be able to impose their perfect solution, and the separation means there aren't the everyday frictions that are the cause of so much of the frustration in the Palestinian territories.

Afghanistan: Domestic call to ban human rights violators from presidential candidacy

Reuters reports that Afghanistan's state human rights body has said that warlord candidates (those with past human rights records) should be barred from the presidential election, as provided by the Afghan constitution. Massouda Jalal, the only female Afghan presidential candidate in 2004, said much the same when she was in Washington, so I infer that there's at least some support in Afghanistan for the idea (she'd say there's a lot).

Of course, there's the question of who, exactly, falls under this category--apparently, nobody's ever drawn up rules to implement the law. Even if this is worked out somehow, the parliament is still full of warlords, and the SNTV electoral system doesn't help matters by allowing anyone with a decent number of localized followers to get into parliament and discouraging strong political parties.

In a more general sense, this is just another example of Afghanistan's weak state and lack of capacity to enforce its own laws, but the question is whether or not the state is better strengthened by ignoring the issue and trying to achieve warlord buy-in (as has been done) or by actually taking the warlords out of the equation. Note that the Taliban was popular, for a while, because it actually accomplished the latter, and it does seem that no government including the warlords will be a well-functioning democracy. The dilemma for ISAF is, of course, that everyone going after warlords isn't going after Taliban. Two questions, then: (1) Is it worth taking the risk of going after these figures, if it means a better final chance of defeating the Taliban, but also, perhaps, a greater risk of losing? (2) Is it worth defeating the Taliban--and how much is it worth--if it upholds a corrupt Afghan pseudo-democratic government?

Honduras: All aboard with party unity (*except Mel)

Honduras's ruling Liberals (Partido Liberal) held their convention this weekend, sans President Mel Zelaya, who was at the ALBA summit and the Summit of the Americas. Zelaya accused Liberal presidential candidate Elvin Santos of planning the convention so he wouldn't be there, to which Santos, according to La Prensa, "lamented that the president could not be present, but noted that it had not crossed anyone's mind but his own that the convention was planned for those dates for that purpose of avoiding his presence." Santos proposed that the president record his message on DVD instead. Meanwhile it was also reported that one of the reasons the convention was shortened--other than the impact on Elvin's pocketbook--was to avoid the president's appearance to discuss his unpopular proposal for a constituent assembly.

However, the rest of the Liberals seem to have united successfully, at least according to El Heraldo. Despite some boos, Santos saw to it that Roberto Micheletti, the speaker of the legislature and his opponent in the Liberal primaries, was elected head of the party's Central Executive Committee; Elvin knows that he'll need everyone on board in order to defeat National Party candidate Pepe Lobo in November.

Argentina: Menem is back in the game

Clarín reports that Argentine ex-president Carlos Menem will again run for the presidency in 2011. Menem, who served in office from 1989 to 1999 and finished first in the first round in 2003, is also known for his involvement in scandals involving the sale of arms to foreign countries and possibly questionable privatization deals during his time in office.

However, in that 2003 election, Menem took 24.5% in the first round, and withdrew from the second round against Néstor Kirchner, realizing that victory was unlikely. There's really no reason to think that he'll be any more attractive an option for anyone this time around, but if he's able to reach a second round against a Kirchnerista candidate, given the unpopularity of the current administration, that could present an interesting situation.

Summit of the Americas: One big happy family

This weekend's Summit of the Americas, on the theme of "Securing Our Citizens' Future by Promoting Human Prosperity, Energy Security and Environmental Sustainability," was (unsurprisingly) unable to agree on a declaration. As Moisés Naím notes in El País, the Summit is like organizing "a convention of dogs and cats," given the disagreements between hemispheric leaders--so much so that Trinidad and Tobago had to be talked into hosting the event.

That said, President Obama was able to come across as reasonable and conciliatory toward the "left bloc" of Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia (plus the wannabe Honduras), with Hugo Chávez even saying he's ready to send an ambassador back to the U.S. The New York Times says that Bolivian president Evo Morales accused Obama of being behind a reported assassination attempt last week--three men were killed in Santa Cruz in a confrontation with police, and the entire escapade remains rather murky--though the Bolivian press (see La Prensa and La Razón) are reporting that what Morales actually said was that if Obama didn't condemn the attempt, he'd construe it as meaning that Obama might have been behind it. At any rate, Obama chose the correct path on this one, saying that "I am absolutely opposed and condemn any efforts at violent overthrows of democratically elected governments," without addressing the specific situation in Bolivia.

The Summit also marked another step out for Salvadoran president-elect Mauricio Funes, who attended along with current president Tony Saca (La Prensa Gráfica has the obligatory picture) and was part of a group of Central American leaders (those from SICA) that discussed the all-important Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for immigrants. Meanwhile, Costa Rica and Colombia apparently want to host the next Summit--maybe things are looking up...

Back to blogging...

All right... I'm back after a long absence and heading back to blogging. I'm expecting to deal with subject matter that might be a bit different than before--especially a bit more of an emphasis on current events in Latin America--but will still be commenting on elections around the world, domestic policy, and (occasionally) baseball, particularly on the business end of it.

NCLB - It ain't over 'til it's over

NYT reports on Education Secretary Margaret Spellings's quest to have NCLB enshrined as Bush's education legacy.

At a school she visited, "Doug Alpiger, the Fourth Street principal, said tests beget more tests, because school districts want proof their students are on track."

Sound Transit's new future plan is up

Proposition 1, rejected last fall by Puget Sound voters, would have approved a large package of mass-transit improvements as well as highway improvements. Interestingly, after its failure at the polls, surveys indicated that a large bloc of voters (environmentalists who did not vote for passage) would have been swayed towards the proposal had it had less highways, not more.

A survey conducted by Sound Transit (PDF) seems to bear that out. According to Sound Transit's telephone survey, there is good news--voters think that expanding mass transit is very important. ST didn't explicitly ask voters to prioritize funding for mass transit over other areas, but since mass transit will have its own referendum, that's not as much of an issues. Furthermore, 52 percent of respondents to an open question identified "transportation" or "congestion" as the most important problem facing the PS region. Voters had very favorable opinions of Sound Transit and King County Metro. In general, voters approved of almost every option put on the table, and seemed to give greater favor to options which were completed more quickly and were more extensive in scope.

Out of the individual projects, those that found the most favor were increasing Tacoma-Seattle commuter rail, using the Eastside freight rail tracks for commuter rail, and extending the light rail across I-90 to Bellevue.

My principal concern about the survey is that it seems to have grossly underweighted younger voters. Only 20 percent of survey respondents were 39 or younger. I am curious if this was deliberate, to represent the distribution of voters, or whether it was a result of polling methods (younger people being more mobile, younger people not having land phones, etc.) I have no idea if it would make a difference in the results.

So, then, what is the proposal? ST comes out with two--the "0.4" and the "0.5" proposals--based on the sales tax hike that each one would require. Essentially, 0.5 is 0.4, plus more stuff. Key points:

• Expansion of light rail to Northgate, to Overlake Hospital in Bellevue, and to south 200th in Burien. The 0.5 plan extends it further, to Overlake TC in Redmond, and to Highline CC in Des Moines. Additionally, there would be studies done (and in some cases ROW purchased) for the eventual extension of the light rail to Everett, Tacoma and Redmond Town Center.
• BRT on the new 520 bridge (not sure what, exactly, this BRT will look like, or how it would be different from current ST regional service. Guess it depends on the bridge outcome).
• Improved Sounder on the southern end (through Kent and Auburn to Tacoma)--more service, station improvements, etc.
• Construction of the First Hill connector that will link that area with light rail (how much gets done depends on which plan).
• Study of transit possibilities on the freight line from Woodinville to Renton.
• Of course, there are lots of little improvements all around.
  

The options cost $6.8bn or $7.8bn, in 2007 dollars. Overall, they're necessary just to deal with the growth the Seattle region will undoubtedly continue to see. Luckily, the survey suggests most people are eager to vote on the issue again this fall, and hopefully approve a package that will get started soon.

Charter schools

Matthew Yglesias has a post up about Excel Academy in Boston, a charter school which--like KIPP--takes the brightest students from inner-city schools and requires family commitment contracts. Not surprisingly, it gets good results. Yglesias concludes that poor kids need more and better instruction without confronting the fact that the schools "cherry-pick" students.

He's right--more and better instruction is important. Yglesias's commenters point out that the problem isn't as much with academically capable kids from the inner city, but with those with families that don't know or don't care about a good education. Also true. (Note Finland's secrets to success).

Where I taught elementary, one of my colleagues who taught Vanguard (the gifted-talented kids) was perpetually frustrated by KIPP, which tried to recruit her brightest kids. Her feeling was that she'd rather have the kids in public magnet schools than KIPP, which she thought was needed for the kids who might not have been as naturally bright, but were still academically oriented. I tend to agree. Meanwhile, there's still the issue of behavior problems disrupting everyone left behind.

Griffey hits 600

Ken Griffey Jr. has made it to 600. At ESPN, Tim Kurkjian reflects on Griffey in his prime--a prime that we in Seattle had the privilege of watching. Seeing an ESPN clip of Griffey ("the Kid") homering in the Kingdome brought me back to my baseball childhood. I thought I was 13 again! (If you don't feel it, you need to look at this).

It's sad to reflect that Griffey, out of the Mariners' great three (he along with Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez), was the only one to really be honest about his intentions--he signed with the Reds, his hometown team, for below market value--and he's been the one to be the most screwed by the situation. While A-Rod got $250m and eventually made his way to New York, and Randy got his rings too (and some Cy Youngs), Griffey just ran into injury and disappointment. He was 30 his first season in Cincinnati (2000) and the best part of his career was over.

The Reds have just one winning season during his time--that first season, 2000--and no playoff appearances. That's certainly partially due to Griffey's injuries. He's reached 500 at-bats only twice in eight full seasons so far. Strangely, he was never seriously injured in Seattle, bar his freak wrist injury on his center-field catch in 1995. Meanwhile, Griffey's seven best seasons in park-adjusted OPS all occurred in Seattle. His best season in Cincinnati (by OPS+ standards), and the eighth-best in his career, was 2003, when he had only 166 at-bats; his best "full" season was 2005, as he managed 491 at-bats, hitting .301/.369/.576 for a 144 OPS+.

That's all there is to this reflection... congratulations to Junior, and may there be many more left.

My favorite quote... on YouTube

I found one of my favorite quotes on YouTube, though the audio quality is pretty bad. The President of the Spanish Republic, Manuel Azaña, as the Republic was clearly losing the war, gave a speech at Barcelona's Ayuntamiento (City Hall) in July 1938 and said the following (personally, I am surprised at the tone of voice that he used to deliver it, as I always considered it a more emotional and quiet quotation):



"Es obligación moral, sobre todo de los que padecen la guerra, cuando se acabe como nosotros queremos que se acabe, sacar de la lección y de la musa del escarmiento el mayor bien posible, y cuando la antorcha pase a otras manos, a otros hombres, a otras generaciones, que se acordaran, si alguna vez sienten que les hierve la sangre iracunda y otra vez el genio español vuelva a enfurecerse con la intolerancia y con el odio y con el apetito de destrucción, que piensen en los muertos y que escuchen su lección: la de esos hombres, que han caído embravecidos en la batalla luchando magnánimamente por un ideal grandioso y que ahora, abrigados en la tierra maternal, ya no tienen odio, ya no tienen rancor, y nos envían, con los destellos de su luz, tranquila y remota como la de una estrella, el mensaje de la patria eternal que dice a todos sus hijos: Paz, Piedad y Perdón."

The translation is as follows (mostly from Hugh Thomas, The Spanish Civil War, but I did the first couple clauses):
"It is a moral obligation, above all of those who suffer war, when it ends as we wish it to end, to take from the lesson and the muse of the punishment the greatest good possible, and when the torch passes to other hands, to other men, to other generations, let them remember, if they ever feel their blood boil and the Spanish temper is once more infuriated with intolerance, hatred, and destruction, let them think of the dead, and listen to their lesson: the lesson of those who have bravely fallen in battle, generously fighting for a great ideal, and who now, protected by their maternal soil, feel no hate or rancor, and who send us, with the sparkling of their light, tranquil and remote as that of a star, the message of the eternal fatherland which says to all its sons: Peace, Pity, and Pardon."

Education in Finland

The Economist's correspondent took a trip to Sweden and Finland to look at their education systems--the latter country's education system is the world's highest-ranked. The correspondent leaves, noting that he approves more, in principle, of Sweden's system--which gives parents more rights vis-a-vis the state, and has competition between different schools and methods (despite not allowing grades)--yet it's Finland's system that gets the best results.

And why does Finland's system get such great outcomes? According to him, it's these three things:

1. Teaching is a highly respected profession. Only 10% of those who want to be teachers are accepted.
2. Teacher training lasts five years and ongoing teacher training is considerable.
3. Students respect the teachers, pay attention and work hard. ("When I asked Finns whether there were some families who despised education and resented schools, they seemed puzzled by the question.")

On the one hand, it's simple: make teaching a profession that will draw the brightest and hardest-working, train teachers well and retain them, and have orderly and respectful schools that dedicate students to hard work. On the other hand, it's pretty difficult... after all, we just have to entirely change societal priorities and attitudes. But I think 2 definitely leads to 1 (lots of training = more people motivated to pursue the profession and more specialized = better incentives for retention), and 1 and 2 definitely lead to 3 (good teachers inspire respect from their students and know how to get results from them), though they certainly aren't the only causal factors.

The correspondent notes that lots of Finnish students are in "special education", especially for behavioral factors. I think my class last year would have achieved 25% more without one or two particular students who, in turn, merited more specialized attention to get on track as well.

On a favorite Republican talking point, it's hard to get rid of bad teachers in Finland: "In Kulosaari, the head teacher, Anneli Rautiainen, said alcoholic teachers in Finland are moved between classes and sometimes even between schools, so that they don't do too much damage to any one child's education." Perhaps firing flexibility isn't the #1 factor. After all, you can get rid of bad teachers, but you've gotta have someone to replace them...

Graduating (or not) from college

You can write me down as oblivious if you want, I suppose, but in working on a new project of mine I am looking at undergraduate dropout rates in public universities--I had no idea they were so high! Perhaps that is because I went to the University of Washington-Seattle, where the six-year completion rate for a bachelor's degree (for first-time, full-time students) is 75 percent--as opposed to 56 percent at Arizona State, or 42 percent at Sac State, or 12 percent at Texas Southern University.

Now TSU, for one, has been in the headlines in Houston recently for scandals involving the administration--but also because they may finally adopt admission standards. All that's been needed to get into TSU is a high school diploma. Now, it must be said that TSU's mission has been to educate the African-American community, and not to leave people behind--and there's obviously value to that mission, but if students are to succeed, it means the institution spends lots of money just getting them ready to be freshmen.

I'm not picking on TSU--they're just needing to find a better way to fulfill their valuable mission. Not surprisingly, there seems to be a very clear correlation between standardized test scores of entering freshmen and graduation rate. So...

• are entering freshmen just not prepared because of subpar schools and/or home resources etc., or
  
• are lower SAT/ACT scores not the important variable, but rather correlated to lower SES, which then creates financial difficulties in continuing with college, or
• are lots of people who never wanted to be in college in the first place just leaving, and it's not mainly a preparation issue, or ...

I'm sure there are a million individual reasons why people don't graduate from college. But this raises the question--if these entering freshmen don't want to be in college, what do they actually want to do, and is there a better use of resources that will get them there?

Rice Owls head to the College World Series!

As a serious baseball fanatic, living in Houston has been fortunate in one way: I've gotten to follow the Rice Owls, one of the best teams in college ball. I started going to games midway through last season and this season I bought season tickets. Now, you have to understand, in junior high/high school I was one of the youngest active members of SABR (the "saber" in "sabermetrics"), and my old bedroom is still full of my baseball library (probably to my father's chagrin. But where else can I put it?).

This 2008 season has featured a slow start, but the end has definitely made up for it. Last weekend saw Rice go 3-0 in the regional, beating Texas 7-4 on Sunday night in a game that featured a rare ejection (after some truly bad calls by the umpire against Rice).

The super regional this weekend against Texas A&M was two compelling games, in front of excited sellout crowds (about 60 percent of the crowd was probably for A&M). On Saturday night, A&M grabbed an early lead, but Rice came back, with #9 hitter Jordan Dodson--who hit .167 during the regular season, had no at bats in the regional, and went undrafted as a senior--going a stunning 3-for-3 with 4 RBI (this led to "Jordan Dodson" chants all night long on Sunday). Closer Cole St. Clair entered in the fifth, and took Rice the rest of the way, 4 1/3 innings, giving up only two hits and one run, as Rice won 9-6.

On Sunday I managed to bring a camera, so I will throw in some pictures.

The starting lineups posted on the wall at Reckling Park.

The lineups are introduced.
Aggie fans start to pack the left-field hill; they would fill it by the 2nd inning.


A&M again took an early lead in the bottom of the third, scoring two runs off Mike Ojala. (Ojala's most notable moment was probably sticking up his glove in the 3rd inning to catch a quick throw from catcher Adam Zornes... which was actually supposed to go to second base. Ojala knocked the ball off line and the runner was safe.)

In the top of the fourth, the Owls took advantage of a fielding error; freshman shortstop Rick Hague then hit a two-run double and tied up the game. (This would be a good time to mention that this win was thanks to Hague and the relief pitchers, Bryan Price and Bobby Bell; Hague was 3-for-4 with 4 RBI and shone in the field, and the two pitchers went 4 1/3 innings, giving up one hit and no runs).

This led to a near-disastrous bottom of the 4th. Ojala retired only one batter (and that on a sacrifice bunt), leaving with runners on first and third, and a run already in, to make the game 3-2 for A&M. Usual starter Matt Langwell entered, giving up a walk and a double before striking out a hitter, and then giving way to lefty Matt Evers. Evers then walked A&M's cleanup hitter, Luke Anders. This put the bases loaded, with two outs, and three runs already home. Then, a strange call... Kyle Colligan tried to steal home from third base. Catcher Adam Zornes simply tagged him out (see the Chronicle for a picture). A&M did not score after running out of the 4th.

Rice remained down, 5-2, until scoring two in the top of the 6th (again taking advantage of an A&M fielding miscue). With the A&M lead now only one run, the bottom of the 6th was not Diego Seastrunk's finest hour. The Rice 3B was unable to stop a sharp grounder into left for a leadoff single; the next hit bounced off his glove, and while he got it to second for one out, could have been a double play. Rick Hague made a nice play for the inning's second out, but the next batter hit another grounder to Seastrunk, whose throw was offline (for his only official error) and put runners on first and third. Luckily, Hague made another nice play to end the inning and the game remained 5-4.

The top of the 8th was the next big event. Aaron Luna led off with a walk, then was thrown out by a laughable margin trying to steal second. Rick Hague's weak chopper to the left side went for an infield single, but Chad Mozingo flied out, and suddenly there were two outs with a runner on first. Up came catcher Adam Zornes--while he remains the team's home-run leader, his slump had been ongoing since the second part of the regular season. This time, though, Zornes hit a line drive to left field that cleared the fence and gave Rice a 6-5 lead. The Owls would take this lead home, as Price and Bell didn't let A&M threaten.

Rice players mob Adam Zornes at the plate after his home run put the Owls ahead, 6-5.

The final scoreboard.
Rice players celebrate after the Comerota-Hague-Padron double play ends the game.
Sophomore 2B Jimmy Comerota ("Jimmy Baseball") at the screen after the game.
One of the game's stars, freshman SS Rick Hague, after the game.
Coach Wayne Graham (#37) and C Adam Zornes (below him) after the game.


It will be sad to say goodbye to the Rice Owls, so instead I will wish them good luck in Omaha, and I hope I will be back in Houston someday to see them play again!

On the Tigers' goose egg

Okay, so the Detroit Tigers are off to an 0-6 start. We've gotten the mandatory barrage of "only two teams have recovered from an 0-6 start to make the postseason." I feel compelled to chime in with my elementary knowledge of statistics...

These first six games are 3.7 percent of the schedule. If the Tigers can go, say, 92-64 the rest of the way, we'll probably see them in the postseason. So, then, why the poor performance by teams that open 0-6? Without any actual numbers, as I'm not the person who will have time to run them, I'd assert that, over the long term, teams have an equal probability of having a losing streak at any point in the season. From that assertion, it follows that teams which are worse have a higher probability of beginning the season with a losing streak, just as they have a higher probability of having a losing streak in any single stretch during the season. If you break it down, I'm "guessing" (or declaring) you'd find that teams with six-game losing streaks to begin the season also have a higher overall rate of losing streaks during the season (which, after all, makes sense, since only two of them have made the playoffs).

ESPN's Jayson Stark points out: "Of the last seven teams that won the World Series, five of them had losing streaks of six games or more at some point that season -- several of them had multiple losing streaks of six games or more." Right, but they probably had fewer losing streaks than everyone else, right?

So, is the Tigers' fate sealed? Clearly not, but they'll have to be a statistical outlier--a good team that just happened to begin the season 0-6.

Montenegro: President Vujanovic wins reelection

From early returns in Montenegro, it appears that President Filip Vujanović has handily won reelection, taking a majority of votes cast (around 52%). Vujanović is a part of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists, the party of PM Milo Đukanović (the Milosević ally-turned-enemy also known for allegedly smuggling into Italy and backing NATO during the Kosovo crisis for, perhaps, his own opportunistic ends; Đukanović quit in 2006, then decided he couldn't stay just in private business and returned to office in February).

At any rate, this is a pretty resounding mandate for the ruling coalition, which has been in control since the early '90s. A quickly growing economy--especially since leaving the union with Serbia--may have much to do with that. The pro-Serb opposition candidate appears to have received just over 20 percent, and a liberal candidate around 17 percent. The president is a typical European ceremonial president, so the significance of this is essentially as a voter endorsement for Đukanović's resumption of power and the ruling DPS (whose continued stranglehold over Montenegrin government is, however, a little worrying).

One interesting/misleading quote from the AP article is:

"Ethnic Serbs, who make up about 30 percent of the population, opposed the split."

Note that the difference between "ethnic Serbs" and "ethnic Montenegrins" is political; they speak the same language (be it "Serbian" or "Montenegrin") and are the same in everything except for their ethnic self-definition. Compare to the "Moldovan" and "Romanian" languages, or perhaps "Valencian" and "Catalan." Therefore, the definition is somewhat tautological; "ethnic Serbs" by definition consider Montenegro and Serbia one country.

See also election article at Wikipedia.

Zim vote "count" proceeds slowly

"Count" of course in quotes, since the counting's been done, but the electoral commission (ZEC) isn't releasing results. No presidential results out, and only 66 parliamentary seats (Zanu-PF 31, MDC-Tsvangirai 30, other MDC faction 5). Some are taking the relatively even distribution of the parliamentary seats as a sign of foul play. Obviously there's the specter of rigging, but (not knowing how the released official results correlate with the MDC's count) I would speculate, alternatively, that the ZEC may be playing it safe and selectively releasing constituencies at a slow pace, making sure they're about tied, until the ruling elite around Mugabe has figured out what the hell they're going to do about the situation. As for the presidential vote, well, who knows... I'm sure they're keeping some usually pro-Mugabe constituencies in their back pocket so they can release presidential and parliamentary figures together showing big Mugabe and Zanu-PF wins, if need be.

Speaking of that ruling elite, reports suggest they're all trying to pass the back as to who tells Bob that it's over. I have to run and can't find the source, but I think BBC was reporting that...

Is the fix in?

On Saturday, voters in Zimbabwe went to the polls to elect a new president, parliament and local councils. Despite intimidation, a lack of independent media, very public (and threatening) statements by government officials, the presence of police in polling stations, and the inability of the millions of emigrants to vote, unofficial results from polling places seem to confirm that longtime opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai should be elected president. Financial Times reports that independent observers put the race at Tsvangirai 55%, President Robert Mugabe 36% (with most of the remaining votes presumably going to ex-government minister Simba Makoni). These tallies came from about two-thirds of polling stations, albeit more heavily weighted toward the opposition-heavy urban areas.

There are a lot more questions this time than in previous elections, however. In 2002, the entire government apparatus still backed President Mugabe; when counting stopped with Tsvangirai in the lead, and suddenly Mugabe had won, the opposition had few options. This time around, there are cracks in the leadership, evinced by Makoni's breakaway campaign (which does not appear, however, to have had a great deal of success). These cracks are much the result of the disastrous economy (including inflation over 100,000%, price controls which have stifled production and restrictions on bank withdrawals) which even some rural dwellers as well as civil servants, all traditional backers of Mugabe, must accredit to the horrible economic reign of Mugabe and ZANU-PF.

With the delay in the release of results, one can conjecture that, perhaps, the leadership is unsure how to proceed as they lose by a clear margin. The MDC has already declared preliminary victory, not wanting to be caught flat-footed like in 2002. Reports state that riot police are being deployed on the streets--perhaps in preparation for the announcement of the "results." Could the leadership hope to carry out a quick arrest of leading opposition figures to stifle any protests? And how strong is the MDC's grassroots organization this time? In the past, protests have been brutally suppressed, including the breaking of Tsvangirai's skull just two years ago.

There are three possibilities:
(1) Mugabe concedes. Not likely.
(2) The electoral commission announces that a runoff will be needed as no candidate reached 50 percent of the vote. While this seems like a "compromise" to some (I think I actually saw that word used in a BBC article), it's the worst option, as it gives another period for repression to intensify and magnifies the chance of violence.
(3) Mugabe is proclaimed the winner, in which case, the MDC will probably try to begin some sort of protests, and the government will try to preempt them. The presence of riot police on the streets may testify to the beginning of this strategy.

At any rate, we should know the "official results" within 24 hours.

Business

There will be no posting until next Saturday at the earliest, as I am headed out of town for a while.

Friday anthem - Maamme/Vårt land

Maamme ("Our Land"), the de facto national anthem of Finland, is in the tradition of non-nationalistic Scandinavian anthems which behold the beauty of the North. Indeed, the original Swedish text ("Vårt land") does not mention Finland. The music (by Frederik Pacius) and words (by Johan Runeberg) were written in the 1840s and translated into Finnish in 1867 (where a mention of "Suomi" was added). As Finnish and Swedish are both official languages of Finland, both versions are official. The same melody was later used to create Estonia's national anthem.

The Wikipedia article is good and includes lyrics, though note the English translation is based on the Swedish and not the Finnish lyrics.

Below is a video of Finnish singer Tarja Turunen singing the anthem at Independence Day festivities. She sings Finnish verse 1, Swedish verse 1, Finnish verse 2.


Here is a choral a cappella version including some images of Finland: